Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

Martin, Daniel F.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Payne, Antony J.

doi:10.1029/2018GL081229

Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

Journal Article · Wed Jan 09 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229· OSTI ID:1544111

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Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Swansea Univ., Swansea (United Kingdom); Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate–driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface–melt–driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding–line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high–resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full–continent simulations have typically been limited to low–resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present–day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ~1–km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine–grounded portions of the WAIS. As a result, vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) (SC-21). Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1544111

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1564012

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Calving cycle of the Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica, driven by changes in ice shelf geometry De Rydt, Jan; Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar; Nagler, Thomas The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019	journal	January 2019
Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets Golledge, Nicholas R. WIREs Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.634	journal	January 2020
Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial Sutter, J.; Eisen, O.; Werner, M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088131	journal	June 2020
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jacob, D.; Taylor, M. Science, Vol. 365, Issue 6459 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw6974	journal	September 2019
Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial Sutter, J.; Eisen, O.; Werner, M. American Geophysical Union https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.145233	text	January 2020

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