Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

Martin, Daniel F.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Payne, Antony J.

doi:10.1029/2018GL081229

Title: Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

Journal Article · Wed Jan 09 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229· OSTI ID:1544111

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Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Swansea Univ., Swansea (United Kingdom); Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate-driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface-melt-driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding-line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high-resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full-continent simulations have typically been limited to low-resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present-day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ~1-km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine-grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR). Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1544111

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1564012

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 3; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 20 works

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Title: Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

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