Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

He, Xin; Ou, Shiqi; Gan, Yu; Lu, Zifeng; Przesmitzki, Steven Victor; Bouchard, Jessey Lee; Sui, Lang; Amer, Amer Ahmad; Lin, Zhenhong; Yu, Rujie; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Michael

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19036-w

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

Journal Article · Thu Oct 15 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19036-w· OSTI ID:1684658

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[3]; ^[1]; Bouchard, Jessey Lee ^[1]; Sui, Lang ^[1]; Amer, Amer Ahmad ^[4]; ^[2]; Yu, Rujie ^[5]; Zhou, Yan ^[3]; Wang, Michael ^[3]

Aramco Services Co., Novi, MI (United States). Aramco Research Center
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Knoxville, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center (NTRC)
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States). Systems Assessment Center
Saudi Aramco, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia). Research and Development Center
China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin (China)

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; Aramco Services Company

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC02-06CH11357

OSTI ID:: 1684658

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1763895

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 11; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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