Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Ou, Shawn; Lin, Zhenhong; Manente, Vittorio; Bouchard, Jessey; He, Xin; Lu, Zifeng; Gan, Yu; Zhou, Yan; Przesmitzki, Steve Victor; Wang, Michael; J de castro gomez, Daniel; Aburas, Nouf; Lilley, William; Calendini, Pierre Olivier

doi:10.1021/bk-2022-1412.ch002

Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Book · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 2022

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/bk-2022-1412.ch002· OSTI ID:1885382

^[1]; ^[1]; Manente, Vittorio ^[2]; Bouchard, Jessey ^[3]; He, Xin ^[3]; Lu, Zifeng ^[4]; Gan, Yu ^[4]; Zhou, Yan ^[4]; Przesmitzki, Steve Victor ^[5]; Wang, Michael ^[4]; J de castro gomez, Daniel ^[6]; Aburas, Nouf ^[6]; Lilley, William ^[2]; Calendini, Pierre Olivier ^[2]

ORNL
Aramco Overseas Company: Aramco Fuel Research Center – Rueil Malmaison
Aramco Services Company
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Argonne National Laboratory
Saudi Aramco

The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1885382

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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