ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; Calov, Reinhard; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kleiner, Thomas; Larour, Eric; Leguy, Gunter R.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Little, Chistopher M.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen F.; Quiquet, Aurélien; Reese, Ronja; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Smith, Robin S.; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Trusel, Luke D.; Van Breedam, Jonas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, Thomas

doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Journal Article · Thu Sep 17 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020· OSTI ID:1664437

; ; ; ; Lipscomb, William H.; ; ; ; ; ; Calov, Reinhard; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Academy of Finland; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Australian Research Council; European Commission; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; German Research Foundation (DFG); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF); Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment; Norwegian Research Council; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1664437

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1699490

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--20-20383

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 14; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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Numerical simulations of major ice streams in Western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, under wet and dry basal conditions Kleiner, Thomas; Humbert, Angelika Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, Issue 220 https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J006	journal	January 2014
Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison Feldmann, J.; Albrecht, T.; Khroulev, C. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, Issue 220 https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093	journal	January 2014
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Parameterization of the Annual Surface Temperature and Mass Balance of Antarctica Fortuin, J. P. F.; Oerlemans, J. Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 14 https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500008302	journal	January 1990
Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016	journal	January 2016
Using ice-flow models to evaluate potential sites of million year-old ice in Antarctica Van Liefferinge, B.; Pattyn, F. Climate of the Past, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013	journal	January 2013
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Albrecht, Torsten Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020	journal	January 2020
Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014	journal	January 2014
An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1) Le Brocq, A. M.; Payne, A. J.; Vieli, A. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2-247-2010	journal	January 2010
MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI): a variable-resolution ice sheet model for Earth system modeling using Voronoi grids Hoffman, Matthew J.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018	journal	January 2018
The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet Quiquet, Aurélien; Dumas, Christophe; Ritz, Catherine Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018	journal	January 2018
Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3) Favier, Lionel; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Jenkins, Adrian Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019	journal	January 2019
Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1 Lipscomb, William H.; Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019	journal	January 2019
Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica Pollard, D.; DeConto, R. M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 5, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012	journal	January 2012
Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1299-2013	journal	January 2013
A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet–sea-level model: algorithm and applications de Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; van de Wal, R. S. W. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014	journal	January 2014
Albany/FELIX : a parallel, scalable and robust, finite element, first-order Stokes approximation ice sheet solver built for advanced analysis Tezaur, I. K.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A. G. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1197-2015	journal	January 2015
Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6 Bueler, E.; van Pelt, W. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1613-2015	journal	January 2015
Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1) Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016	journal	January 2016
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6 Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016	journal	January 2016
Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0) Pattyn, Frank The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017	journal	January 2017
Comparison of hybrid schemes for the combination of shallow approximations in numerical simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017	journal	January 2017
Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018	journal	January 2018
Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016) van Wessem, Jan Melchior; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y. The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018	journal	January 2018
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Basal friction of Fleming Glacier, Antarctica – Part 1: Sensitivity of inversion to temperature and bedrock uncertainty Zhao, Chen; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Warner, Roland C. The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018	journal	January 2018
Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model Calov, Reinhard; Beyer, Sebastian; Greve, Ralf The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018	journal	January 2018
Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Seroussi, Helene; Schodlok, Michael P. The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018	journal	January 2018
Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018	journal	January 2018
Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018	journal	January 2018
Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model Pelle, Tyler; Morlighem, Mathieu; Bondzio, Johannes H. The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019	journal	January 2019
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Sun, Sainan The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019	journal	January 2019
initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Simon, Erika The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019	journal	January 2019
Sensitivity of centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen basin to the friction law Brondex, Julien; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Gagliardini, Olivier The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019	journal	January 2019
Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes Agosta, Cécile; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019	journal	January 2019
Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model Le clec'h, Sébastien; Charbit, Sylvie; Quiquet, Aurélien The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019	journal	January 2019
The Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica Howat, Ian M.; Porter, Claire; Smith, Benjamin E. The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-665-2019	journal	January 2019
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge Morlighem, Mathieu; Wood, Michael; Seroussi, Hélène The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019	journal	January 2019
Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+) Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Helene; Asay-Davis, Xylar S. The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020	journal	January 2020
Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models Nowicki, Sophie; Goelzer, Heiko; Seroussi, Hélène The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020	journal	January 2020
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020	journal	January 2020
A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Hattermann, Tore The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020	journal	January 2020
CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica Barthel, Alice; Agosta, Cécile; Little, Christopher M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020	journal	January 2020
Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts Albrecht, T.; Martin, M.; Haseloff, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-35-2011	journal	January 2011
The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011	journal	January 2011
The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-727-2011	journal	January 2011
Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.; Seddik, H. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012	journal	January 2012
Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet Helsen, M. M.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; van den Broeke, M. R. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012	journal	January 2012
Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat Levermann, A.; Albrecht, T.; Winkelmann, R. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-273-2012	journal	January 2012
A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica Pollard, D.; DeConto, R. M. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-953-2012	journal	January 2012
Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica Fretwell, P.; Pritchard, H. D.; Vaughan, D. G. The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013	journal	January 2013
Parameterization of basal friction near grounding lines in a one-dimensional ice sheet model Leguy, G. R.; Asay-Davis, X. S.; Lipscomb, W. H. The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014	journal	January 2014
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Rignot, E. The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014	journal	January 2014
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet Edwards, T. L.; Fettweis, X.; Gagliardini, O. The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014	journal	January 2014
Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I. The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015	journal	January 2015
Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling Nowicki, Sophie; Seroussi, Helene Oceanography, Vol. 31, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.216	journal	June 2018

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