Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pulwarty, Roger; Hobbins, Mike; Hoell, Andrew; AghaKouchak, Amir; Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Hoerling, Martin; Hoffmann, David; Kaatz, Laurna; Lehner, Flavio; Llewellyn, Dagmar; Mote, Philip; Neale, Richard B.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Sheffield, Amanda; Stahl, Kerstin; Svoboda, Mark; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Wood, Andrew W.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Journal Article · Mon Mar 02 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0· OSTI ID:1657487

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[3]; ^[5]; ^[6]; ^[7]; Hoerling, Martin ^[3]; ^[7]; Kaatz, Laurna ^[8]; ^[2]; ^[9]; ^[10]; ^[2]; ^[11]; ^[12]; ^[13]; ^[14]; ^[15] more »

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Denver Water, Denver, CO (United States)
US Dept. of Interior, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Bureau of Reclamation
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)
Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography
Univ. of Freiburg (Germany)
Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE (United States)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Australian Research Council (ARC); Meat and Livestock Australia; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); Queensland Government; US Agency for International Development (USAID); US Bureau of Reclamation; USDA; USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243018SSC000007; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1657487

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1769151

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL--804559

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 10; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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