The east–west division of changing precipitation in Nepal

Pokharel, Binod; Wang, S. ‐Y. Simon; Meyer, Jonathan; Marahatta, Suresh; Nepal, Bikash; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Gillies, Robert

doi:10.1002/joc.6401

The east–west division of changing precipitation in Nepal

Journal Article · Wed Nov 27 23:00:00 EST 2019 · International Journal of Climatology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6401· OSTI ID:1576018

^[1]; Wang, S. ‐Y. Simon ^[1]; Meyer, Jonathan ^[1]; Marahatta, Suresh ^[2]; Nepal, Bikash ^[3]; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu ^[4]; Gillies, Robert ^[1]

Utah Climate Center, Utah State University Logan Utah, Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate Utah State University Logan Utah
Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Thibhuvan University Kathmandu Nepal
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Government of Nepal Kathmandu Nepal
Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate Utah State University Logan Utah

Abstract

Changes to precipitation patterns and extremes over the Nepalese Himalayas were examined using a high‐resolution, station‐based daily dataset, Asian Precipitation‐Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (0.05° × 0.05° APHRODITE) from 1951 to 2007. The annual statistics of extreme precipitation across Nepal show a significant increase since the end of the 20th century. However, seasonal mean precipitation shows a remarkable decrease in western Nepal, particularly since 1980, forming an east–west division in the precipitation change. This decreasing trend of precipitation led to a reduction to the dry‐season stream flow of Karnali River, the major river in western Nepal. At the same time, the increasing extreme precipitation produced greater threat of flash flood in Nepal. This east–west division of the precipitation trend agrees with the second leading mode of the mean precipitation variability, which was traced to the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature that showed a slowdown of warming. Similar to the APHRODITE trends, precipitation simulated by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models depicted the decreasing historical trend in western Nepal, but future projections reverse that trend towards an all‐Nepal increase. CMIP5 future climate projections depict continual warming in the Indian Ocean, potentially reversing the historical decreasing trends of precipitation in western Nepal.

View Accepted Manuscript (Publisher)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1576018

Journal Information:: International Journal of Climatology, Journal Name: International Journal of Climatology Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 40; ISSN 0899-8418

Publisher:: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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