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Title: Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy

Journal Article · · Science
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  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  3. LUT Univ., Lappeenranta (Finland)
  4. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  5. King Abdullah Univ. of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)
  6. NICE Solar Energy, Schwäbisch Hall (Germany)
  7. Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Freiburg (Germany)
  8. California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA (United States)
  9. Toshiba Mitsubishi-Electric Industrial Systems Corporation, Tokyo (Japan)
  10. RTS Corporation, Tokyo (Japan)
  11. Meyer Burger, Thun (Switzerland)
  12. National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)
  13. VDE Renewables GmbH, Alzenau (Germany)
  14. First Solar, Tempe, AZ (United States)
  15. National Inst. of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba (Japan)
  16. NET Nowak Energy & Technology Ltd., St. Ursen (Switzerland)
  17. Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS) (Singapore)
  18. SunPower Corporation, San Jose, CA (United States)
  19. Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Materialien und Energie and Hochs chule fur Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin (Germany)
  20. ECN, Petten (Netherlands)
  21. Sinton Instruments, Boulder, CO (United States)
  22. SIVA Power, Santa Clara, CA (United States)
  23. Univ. of Ljubljana (Slovenia)
  24. Tokyo University of Science (Japan)
  25. AMROCK Pty LTD, McLaren Vale (Australia)
  26. Toyota Technological Institute, Nagoya (Japan)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Solar energy has the potential to play a central role in the future global energy system because of the scale of the solar resource, its predictability, and its ubiquitous nature. Global installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 500 GW at the end of 2018, and an estimated additional 500 GW of PV capacity is projected to be installed by 2022-2023, bringing us into the era of TW-scale PV. Given the speed of change in the PV industry, both in terms of continued dramatic cost decreases and manufacturing-scale increases, the growth toward TW-scale PV has caught many observers, including many of us (1), by surprise. Two years ago, we focused on the challenges of achieving 3 to 10 TW of PV by 2030. Here, we envision a future with ~10 TW of PV by 2030 and 30 to 70 TW by 2050, providing a majority of global energy. PV would be not just a key contributor to electricity generation but also a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system. We discuss ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies (e.g., energy storage, power to gas/liquid fuels/chemicals, grid integration, and multiple sector electrification) and summarize what is needed in research in PV performance, reliability, manufacturing, and recycling.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; NREL Strategic Initiative
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1545001
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5K00-72778
Journal Information:
Science, Vol. 364, Issue 6443; ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher:
AAASCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 260 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (10)

Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility journal August 2018
Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting journal January 2018
Advanced Grid-Friendly Controls Demonstration Project for Utility-Scale PV Power Plants report January 2016
What Should We Make with CO2 and How Can We Make It? journal May 2018
Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges journal April 2017
Hydrogen at Scale (H 2 @Scale): Key to a Clean, Economic, and Sustainable Energy System journal January 2018
Short-term integration costs of variable renewable energy: Wind curtailment and balancing in Britain and Germany journal April 2018
Demonstration of Essential Reliability Services by a 300-MW Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant report March 2017
From Laboratory to Production: Learning Models of Efficiency and Manufacturing Cost of Industrial Crystalline Silicon and Thin-Film Photovoltaic Technologies journal November 2018
The Fall and Rise of Gravity Storage Technologies journal March 2019

Cited By (15)

Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility‐scale PV levelised cost of electricity journal August 2019
The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO 2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions journal November 2019
Case study of MW‐sized power generation at St. Eustatius island combining photovoltaics, battery storage, and gensets
  • Garralaga Rojas, Enrique; Sadri, Hamed; Krueger, Wiebke
  • Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3222
journal November 2019
Radiative Efficiency and Charge‐Carrier Lifetimes and Diffusion Length in Polycrystalline CdSeTe Heterostructures journal December 2019
Formation of carbon–nitrogen bonds in carbon monoxide electrolysis journal August 2019
Comparisons of WO 3 reduction to H x WO 3 under thermochemical and electrochemical control journal January 2019
Shockley–Queisser triangle predicts the thermodynamic efficiency limits of arbitrarily complex multijunction bifacial solar cells journal November 2019
Nexus approach to solar technology for energy and water supply for sustainable rural development in Egypt: a review journal September 2019
Detailed illumination model for bifacial solar cells journal January 2020
Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World journal October 2019
Global Climate Data Processing and Mapping of Degradation Mechanisms and Degradation Rates of PV Modules journal December 2019
Radiative Efficiency and Charge‐Carrier Lifetimes and Diffusion Length in Polycrystalline CdSeTe Heterostructures journal January 2020
The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions text January 2019
The Impact of Global Warming on Silicon PV Energy Yield in 2100 preprint January 2019
Three stages in the co-transformation of the energy and mobility sector preprint January 2020

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Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
photovoltaics
terawatt
capacity