Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Yeager, Stephen G.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

doi:10.5194/esd-10-45-2019

Title: Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

Journal Article · Thu Jan 24 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Earth System Dynamics (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019· OSTI ID:1491919

Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Yeager, Stephen G.;

;

Abstract. Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decade in advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term predictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO₂ flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO₂ flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of the forecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO₂ flux evolution. This potential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with the longest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO₂ flux variations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO₂, which itself is a function of predictability in surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potential predictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated by the moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with an observationally based CO₂ flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggest that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to be predicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–sea CO₂ flux in the near future.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1491919

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1544103

Journal Information:: Earth System Dynamics (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Vol. 10 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 2190-4987

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 30 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (53)

Recent evidence for a strengthening CO ₂ sink in the Southern Ocean from carbonate system measurements in the Drake Passage (2002–2015) Munro, David R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Takahashi, Taro Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065194	journal	September 2015
Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends Wanninkhof, R.; Park, G. -H.; Takahashi, T. Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013	journal	January 2013
The CCSM4 Ocean Component Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bates, Susan C.; Briegleb, Bruce P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1	journal	March 2012
Recent acceleration of the sea surface f CO ₂ growth rate in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (1993-2008) revealed by winter observations : SEA SURFACE Metzl, Nicolas; Corbière, Antoine; Reverdin, Gilles Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 24, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003658	journal	October 2010
Sea-to-air CO ₂ flux from 1948 to 2003: A model study : SEA-TO-AIR CO Wetzel, P.; Winguth, A.; Maier-Reimer, E. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002339	journal	April 2005
Southern Ocean carbon trends: Sensitivity to methods: SOUTHERN OCEAN CARBON TRENDS Fay, Amanda R.; McKinley, Galen A.; Lovenduski, Nicole S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061324	journal	October 2014
Observing multidecadal trends in Southern Ocean CO ₂ uptake: What can we learn from an ocean model? Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Fay, Amanda R.; McKinley, Galen A. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004933	journal	April 2015
Natural Variability in a Stable, 1000-Yr Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Simulation Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; Fung, Inez Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3783.1	journal	July 2006
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration Lovenduski, N. S.; Long, M. C.; Lindsay, K. Biogeosciences, Vol. 12, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015	journal	January 2015
Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches Meehl, Gerald A.; Goddard, Lisa; Boer, George Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1	journal	February 2014
A multi-decade record of high-quality f CO ₂ data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO ₂ Atlas (SOCAT) Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Pfeil, Benjamin; Landa, Camilla S. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-383-2016	journal	January 2016
The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink Gruber, Nicolas; Landschützer, Peter; Lovenduski, Nicole S. Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063407	journal	January 2019
Enhanced CO ₂ outgassing in the Southern Ocean from a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode : SAM AND SOUTHERN OCEAN CO Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Gruber, Nicolas; Doney, Scott C. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002900	journal	June 2007
Timescales for detection of trends in the ocean carbon sink McKinley, Galen A.; Pilcher, Darren J.; Fay, Amanda R. Nature, Vol. 530, Issue 7591 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16958	journal	February 2016
Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S. Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060529	journal	January 2017
Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake Séférian, Roland; Berthet, Sarah; Chevallier, Matthieu Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076092	journal	March 2018
Sedimentary and mineral dust sources of dissolved iron to the world ocean Moore, J. K.; Braucher, O. Biogeosciences, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-631-2008	journal	January 2008
Decadal predictability and forecast skill Boer, G. J.; Kharin, V. V.; Merryfield, W. J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1705-0	journal	March 2013
Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector Keenlyside, N. S.; Latif, M.; Jungclaus, J. Nature, Vol. 453, Issue 7191 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06921	journal	May 2008
Trends in the North Atlantic carbon sink: 1992-2006: TRENDS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC CARBON SINK Ullman, David J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Bennington, Val Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 23, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003383	journal	October 2009
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation influence CO ₂ uptake in the North Atlantic over the past 2 decades : CO Thomas, Helmuth; Friederike Prowe, A. E.; Lima, Ivan D. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003167	journal	December 2008
Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s: PREDICTIONS OF 1990s ATLANTIC WARMING Robson, J. I.; Sutton, R. T.; Smith, D. M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053370	journal	October 2012
Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful? Meehl, Gerald A.; Goddard, Lisa; Murphy, James Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1	journal	October 2009
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model: GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM-BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL Moore, J. Keith; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 18, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002220	journal	December 2004
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370	journal	January 2018
Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure: OCEAN CARBON UPTAKE PROJECTIONS Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005426	journal	September 2016
Seasonally different carbon flux changes in the Southern Ocean in response to the southern annular mode: SAM-RELATED CARBON FLUX CHANGES Hauck, J.; Völker, C.; Wang, T. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 27, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004600	journal	December 2013
Sea–air CO ₂ fluxes in the Southern Ocean for the period 1990–2009 Lenton, A.; Tilbrook, B.; Law, R. M. Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013	journal	January 2013
Natural variability of CO ₂ and O ₂ fluxes: What can we learn from centuries-long climate models simulations? Resplandy, L.; Séférian, R.; Bopp, L. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 120, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010463	journal	January 2015
Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability Yeager, S. G.; Robson, J. I. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0064-z	journal	April 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2017 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018	journal	January 2018
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model Smith, D. M.; Cusack, S.; Colman, A. W. Science, Vol. 317, Issue 5839 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139540	journal	August 2007
Climate impacts on multidecadal p CO ₂ variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009 Breeden, Melissa L.; McKinley, Galen A. Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3387-2016	journal	January 2016
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016	journal	January 2016
Mechanisms governing interannual variability in upper-ocean inorganic carbon system and air–sea CO2 fluxes: Physical climate and atmospheric dust Doney, Scott C.; Lima, Ivan; Feely, Richard A. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 56, Issue 8-10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.006	journal	April 2009
Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen: TRENDS IN DISSOLVED OXYGEN Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis; Ito, Taka Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005310	journal	February 2016
Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model Yeager, S. G.; Danabasoglu, G.; Rosenbloom, N. A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1	journal	September 2018
Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink Landschützer, Peter; Gruber, Nicolas; Bakker, Dorothee C. E. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 10, p. 1396-1417 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359	journal	October 2016
Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability – first results of the Surface Ocean p CO ₂ Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N. Biogeosciences, Vol. 12, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7251-2015	journal	January 2015
A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Yeager, Stephen; Karspeck, Alicia; Danabasoglu, Gokhan Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1	journal	August 2012
The Variable and Changing Southern Ocean Silicate Front: Insights From the CESM Large Ensemble Freeman, Natalie M.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Munro, David R. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 32, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GB005816	journal	May 2018
Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana; Müller, Wolfgang A. Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11076	journal	March 2016
The CCSM4 Land Simulation, 1850–2005: Assessment of Surface Climate and New Capabilities Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00103.1	journal	April 2012
Global open-ocean biomes: mean and temporal variability Fay, A. R.; McKinley, G. A. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-273-2014	journal	January 2014
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss: PREDICTED RATE OF SEA ICE LOSS Yeager, Stephen G.; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364	journal	December 2015
Role of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in Southern Ocean CO ₂ uptake : SAM AND SOUTHERN OCEAN CO Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002714	journal	May 2007
Multi-decadal trends in the advection and mixing of natural carbon in the Southern Ocean: SOUTHERN OCEAN CARBON TRENDS Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Long, Matthew C.; Gent, Peter R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054483	journal	January 2013
Avoidable impacts of ocean warming on marine primary production: Insights from the CESM ensembles: AVOIDABLE IMPACTS OF OCEAN WARMING Krumhardt, Kristen M.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Long, Matthew C. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005528	journal	January 2017
The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink Landschützer, Peter; Gruber, Nicolas; Haumann, F. Alexander Science, Vol. 349, Issue 6253 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab2620	journal	September 2015
Variability of primary production and air-sea CO ₂ flux in the Southern Ocean : MODELED VARIATIONS AND TRENDS Wang, Shanlin; Moore, J. Keith Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GB003981	journal	January 2012
Carbon dioxide and oxygen fluxes in the Southern Ocean: Mechanisms of interannual variability: SOUTHERN OCEAN CARBON AND OXYGEN FLUXES Verdy, A.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Follows, M. J. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002916	journal	May 2007

Similar Records

On the role of climate modes in modulating the air–sea CO₂ fluxes in eastern boundary upwelling systems

Journal Article · Thu Jan 24 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Biogeosciences (Online) · OSTI ID:1491919

Brady, Riley X.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Alexander, Michael A.; +2 more

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Journal Article · Wed Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Earth System Science Data (Online) · OSTI ID:1491919

Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; +73 more

Realized ecological forecast through an interactive Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD, v1.0) into models

Journal Article · Mon Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1491919

Huang, Yuanyuan; Stacy, Mark; Jiang, Jiang; +9 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Geology

Title: Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

Citation Formats

References (53)

Similar Records

Related Subjects