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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2018

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5more » GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of0.5 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 %and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2017,ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr-1,with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmosphericCO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017.For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017,but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics,and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016,2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]; ORCiD logo [10];  [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13];  [12];  [14];  [15] more »;  [12];  [1];  [16]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [4];  [18]; ORCiD logo [13];  [19]; ORCiD logo [20]; ORCiD logo [21]; ORCiD logo [22]; ORCiD logo [23]; ORCiD logo [24];  [25];  [19];  [26]; ORCiD logo [27]; ORCiD logo [28];  [29];  [26];  [30]; ORCiD logo [19];  [31];  [32];  [33];  [34]; ORCiD logo [35];  [36]; ORCiD logo [37];  [36];  [38];  [9];  [39]; ORCiD logo [40];  [41];  [42];  [43]; ORCiD logo [44];  [3];  [45];  [43];  [45];  [46]; ORCiD logo [47];  [48]; ORCiD logo [49]; ORCiD logo [32];  [50]; ORCiD logo [51];  [52]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [17];  [22]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [44];  [12] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo (Norway)
  3. University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  4. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach (Germany)
  5. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  6. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  7. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research (Germany)
  8. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  9. University of Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL (United States)
  10. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich (Germany)
  11. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Paris (France)
  12. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers (France)
  13. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  14. Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
  15. Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ) (Belgium)
  16. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  17. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  18. Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA (United States)
  19. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  20. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  21. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten (Norway)
  22. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  23. Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo (Japan)
  24. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
  25. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Netherlands)
  26. Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06) (France)
  27. University of Bern (Switzerland)
  28. University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  29. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  30. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  31. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  32. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania (Australia); University of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia)
  33. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway)
  34. National Research Institute for Far Sea Fisheries, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Kanazawa-Ku (Japan)
  35. JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)
  36. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  37. Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands); University of Groningen, Nijenborgh (The Netherlands)
  38. University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway); NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  39. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  40. Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock (Germany)
  41. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
  42. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United States)
  43. Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse (France)
  44. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  45. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  46. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
  47. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States)
  48. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO (United States)
  49. Auburn Univ., AL (United States)
  50. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (Italy)
  51. Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands)
  52. Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1502552
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; SC0000016323; FC03-97ER62402; SC0012972
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Science Data (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
Copernicus
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Hauck, Judith, Pongratz, Julia, Pickers, Penelope A., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek K., Barbero, Leticia, Bastos, Ana, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Doney, Scott C., Gkritzalis, Thanos, Goll, Daniel S., Harris, Ian, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoffman, Forrest M., Hoppema, Mario, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Johannessen, Truls, Jones, Chris D., Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Zhu, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Neill, Craig, Olsen, Are, Ono, Tsueno, Patra, Prabir, Peregon, Anna, Peters, Wouter, Peylin, Philippe, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rocher, Matthias, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Steinhoff, Tobias, Sutton, Adrienne, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Wright, Rebecca, Zaehle, Sönke, and Zheng, Bo. Global Carbon Budget 2018. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018.
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Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Hauck, Judith, Pongratz, Julia, Pickers, Penelope A., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek K., Barbero, Leticia, Bastos, Ana, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Doney, Scott C., Gkritzalis, Thanos, Goll, Daniel S., Harris, Ian, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoffman, Forrest M., Hoppema, Mario, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Johannessen, Truls, Jones, Chris D., Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Zhu, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Neill, Craig, Olsen, Are, Ono, Tsueno, Patra, Prabir, Peregon, Anna, Peters, Wouter, Peylin, Philippe, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rocher, Matthias, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Steinhoff, Tobias, Sutton, Adrienne, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Wright, Rebecca, Zaehle, Sönke, & Zheng, Bo. Global Carbon Budget 2018. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
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Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Hauck, Judith, Pongratz, Julia, Pickers, Penelope A., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek K., Barbero, Leticia, Bastos, Ana, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Doney, Scott C., Gkritzalis, Thanos, Goll, Daniel S., Harris, Ian, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoffman, Forrest M., Hoppema, Mario, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Johannessen, Truls, Jones, Chris D., Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Zhu, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Neill, Craig, Olsen, Are, Ono, Tsueno, Patra, Prabir, Peregon, Anna, Peters, Wouter, Peylin, Philippe, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rocher, Matthias, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Steinhoff, Tobias, Sutton, Adrienne, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Wright, Rebecca, Zaehle, Sönke, and Zheng, Bo. 2018. "Global Carbon Budget 2018". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1502552.
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@article{osti_1502552,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2018},
author = {Le Quéré, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Hauck, Judith and Pongratz, Julia and Pickers, Penelope A. and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Peters, Glen P. and Canadell, Josep G. and Arneth, Almut and Arora, Vivek K. and Barbero, Leticia and Bastos, Ana and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Frédéric and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Doney, Scott C. and Gkritzalis, Thanos and Goll, Daniel S. and Harris, Ian and Haverd, Vanessa and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Hoppema, Mario and Houghton, Richard A. and Hurtt, George and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jain, Atul K. and Johannessen, Truls and Jones, Chris D. and Kato, Etsushi and Keeling, Ralph F. and Goldewijk, Kees Klein and Landschützer, Peter and Lefèvre, Nathalie and Lienert, Sebastian and Liu, Zhu and Lombardozzi, Danica and Metzl, Nicolas and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and Neill, Craig and Olsen, Are and Ono, Tsueno and Patra, Prabir and Peregon, Anna and Peters, Wouter and Peylin, Philippe and Pfeil, Benjamin and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rehder, Gregor and Resplandy, Laure and Robertson, Eddy and Rocher, Matthias and Rödenbeck, Christian and Schuster, Ute and Schwinger, Jörg and Séférian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Steinhoff, Tobias and Sutton, Adrienne and Tans, Pieter P. and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and Tubiello, Francesco N. and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Werf, Guido R. and Viovy, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Wright, Rebecca and Zaehle, Sönke and Zheng, Bo},
abstractNote = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was9.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of0.5 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 %and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2017,ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr-1,with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmosphericCO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017.For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017,but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics,and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016,2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1502552}, journal = {Earth System Science Data (Online)},
issn = {1866-3516},
number = 4,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {12}
}
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Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption
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Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink
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Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations
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Supplemental data of Global Carbon Project 2018
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Multi-laboratory compilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide data for the period 1957-2015; obspack_co2_1_GLOBALVIEWplus_v2.1_2016-09-02
dataset, January 2016

  • Project, Cooperative Global Atmospheric Data Integration
  • NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division
  • https://doi.org/10.15138/g3059z

The collection 6 MODIS active fire detection algorithm and fire products
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How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions?
journal, January 2009

The global carbon budget 1959–2011
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Update on CO2 emissions
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Developments in the MPI‐M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO 2
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A fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions
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Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks
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Economic value of improved quantification in global sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
journal, May 2011

  • Durant, A. J.; Le Quéré, C.; Hope, C.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1943
  • https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0002

A synthesis of carbon in international trade
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Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China
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Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes
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Three decades of global methane sources and sinks
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Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean : AIR-SEA EXCHANGE OF ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON
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Effect of increasing CO 2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle
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Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
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Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean
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Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record
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Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years
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CO<sub>2</sub> flux history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion of atmospheric transport
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Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean
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The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink
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Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss
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Estimates of Freshwater Discharge from Continents: Latitudinal and Seasonal Variations
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