Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

Hu, Zeyuan; Hu, Aixue; Hu, Yongyun

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0204.1

Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

Journal Article · Mon Jan 22 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0204.1· OSTI ID:1541839

Hu, Zeyuan ^[1]; Hu, Aixue ^[2]; Hu, Yongyun ^[3]

Peking Univ., Beijing (China); DOE/OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Peking Univ., Beijing (China)

Regional sea surface temperature (SST) mode variabilities, especially the La Niña–like Pacific Ocean temperature pattern known as the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the associated heat redistribution within the ocean, are the leading mechanisms explaining the recent global warming hiatus. Here version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to examine how different phases of two leading decadal time scale SST modes, namely the IPO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), contribute to heat redistribution in the global ocean in the absence of time-evolving external forcings. The results show that both the IPO and AMO contribute a similar magnitude to global mean surface temperature and ocean heat redistribution. Both modes contribute warmer surface temperature and higher upper ocean heat content in their positive phase, and the reverse in their negative phase. Regionally, patterns of ocean heat distribution in the upper few hundred meters of the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean depend highly on the IPO phase via the IPO-associated changes in the subtropical cell. In the Atlantic, ocean heat content is primarily associated with the state of the AMO. The interconnections between the IPO, AMO, and global ocean heat distribution are established through the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. An in-phase variant of the IPO and AMO can lead to much higher surface temperatures and heat content changes than an out-of-phase variation. This result suggests that changes in the IPO and AMO are potentially capable of modulating externally forced SST and heat content trends.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1541839

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 31; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (72)

Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review Buckley, Martha W.; Marshall, John Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 54, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493	journal	January 2016
The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?: THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000417	journal	November 2016
Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere Delworth, T. L.; Mann, M. E. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 16, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000075	journal	September 2000
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia Power, S.; Casey, T.; Folland, C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284	journal	May 1999
Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the Meridional Overturning Circulation and global climate in the future Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 58, Issue 17-18 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.10.069	journal	September 2011
Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 132 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.02.004	journal	March 2015
Global scale decadal climate variability Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Strand, Warren G. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900088	journal	November 1998
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670	journal	January 2003
A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate Knight, Jeff R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024233	journal	January 2005
Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 87, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO240001	journal	January 2006
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026267	journal	January 2006
Climate impacts of systematic errors in the simulation of the path of the North Atlantic Current Weese, Scott R.; Bryan, Frank O. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027669	journal	January 2006
Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability: IMPACT ON NORTH PACIFIC VARIABILITY Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031601	journal	December 2007
Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth's radiation balance: IMPORTANCE OF DEEP OCEAN Palmer, Matthew D.; McNeall, Douglas J.; Dunstone, Nick J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047835	journal	July 2011
Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991 Kaplan, Alexey; Cane, Mark A.; Kushnir, Yochanan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C9 https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01736	journal	August 1998
Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean McPhaden, Michael J.; Zhang, Dongxiao Nature, Vol. 415, Issue 6872 https://doi.org/10.1038/415603a	journal	February 2002
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Halloran, Paul R. Nature, Vol. 484, Issue 7393 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10946	journal	April 2012
North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib; Keenlyside, Noel Nature, Vol. 499, Issue 7459 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12268	journal	July 2013
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature, Vol. 501, Issue 7467 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534	journal	August 2013
Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J. -M. Nature, Vol. 521, Issue 7553 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14491	journal	May 2015
Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Fasullo, John T. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229	journal	September 2011
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106	journal	February 2014
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming McGregor, Shayne; Timmermann, Axel; Stuecker, Malte F. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2330	journal	August 2014
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605	journal	April 2015
Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938	journal	February 2016
Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3058	journal	June 2016
Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Santer, Benjamin D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3107	journal	August 2016
Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10926	journal	March 2016
Correspondence: Variations in ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12541	journal	August 2016
Correspondence: Reply to: ‘Correspondence: Variations in ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus’ Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12542	journal	August 2016
Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Painter, Jeffrey F. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098	journal	February 2014
Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus Lee, Sang-Ki; Park, Wonsun; Baringer, Molly O. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2438	journal	May 2015
The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2770	journal	July 2016
Influence of Bering Strait flow and North Atlantic circulation on glacial sea-level changes Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo729	journal	January 2010
Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability Hu, A.; Meehl, G. A.; Han, W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116014109	journal	April 2012
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies Evan, A. T.; Vimont, D. J.; Heidinger, A. K. Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5928 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1167404	journal	March 2009
Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration Chen, X.; Tung, K. -K. Science, Vol. 345, Issue 6199 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254937	journal	August 2014
Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America Latif, M.; Barnett, T. P. Science, Vol. 266, Issue 5185 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.266.5185.634	journal	October 1994
Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating Nieves, V.; Willis, J. K.; Patzert, W. C. Science, Vol. 349, Issue 6247 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4521	journal	July 2015
Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.; Huang, B. Science, Vol. 348, Issue 6242 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632	journal	June 2015
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation Clement, A.; Bellomo, K.; Murphy, L. N. Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6258 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3980	journal	October 2015
Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation" Zhang, R.; Sutton, R.; Danabasoglu, G. Science, Vol. 352, Issue 6293 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf1660	journal	June 2016
Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms Deser, Clara; Alexander, Michael A.; Xie, Shang-Ping Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453	journal	January 2010
Interdecadal Variations of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Delworth, T.; Manabe, S.; Stouffer, R. J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1993:IVOTTC>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1993
Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and Predictability Latif, M.; Barnett, T. P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2407:DCVOTN>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 1996
ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 Zhang, Yuan; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 1997
Advective Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction: An Analytical Stochastic Model with Implications for Decadal Variability Saravanan, R.; McWilliams, James C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0165:AOAIAA>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 1998
On Ocean Dynamics in Midlatitude Climate Dewar, William K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4380:OODIMC>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 2001
Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature Latif, M.; Roeckner, E.; Botzet, M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:RMAPMC>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2004
On Multidecadal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Community Climate System Model Version 3 Danabasoglu, Gokhan Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2019.1	journal	November 2008
North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems Ceballos, Lina I.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hoyos, Carlos D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2848.1	journal	October 2009
The Impact of North Atlantic–Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Semenov, Vladimir A.; Latif, Mojib; Dommenget, Dietmar Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3347.1	journal	November 2010
Kuroshio Extension Variability and Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillations: Responses and Potential Feedback Qiu, Bo Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 33, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2459.1	journal	December 2003
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James S.; Oreskes, Naomi Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1	journal	May 2016
The CCSM4 Ocean Component Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bates, Susan C.; Briegleb, Bruce P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1	journal	March 2012
Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CCSM4 Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kwon, Young-Oh Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1	journal	August 2012
The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments Neale, Richard B.; Richter, Jadwiga; Park, Sungsu Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00236.1	journal	July 2013
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Arblaster, Julie M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1	journal	September 2013
Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4 Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.; Arblaster, Julie M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1	journal	September 2013
Earth’s Energy Imbalance Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1	journal	May 2014
Oceanic Forcings of the Interdecadal Variability in East Asian Summer Rainfall Si, Dong; Ding, Yihui Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0792.1	journal	November 2016
Internally Generated and Externally Forced Multidecadal Oceanic Modes and Their Influence on the Summer Rainfall over East Asia Si, Dong; Hu, Aixue Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0065.1	journal	October 2017
Response of the Kuroshio Extension to Rossby Waves Associated with the 1970s Climate Regime Shift in a High-Resolution Ocean Model* Taguchi, Bunmei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mitsudera, Humio Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3449.1	journal	August 2005
The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Schneider, Niklas; Cornuelle, Bruce D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3527.1	journal	November 2005
Megadroughts in the Indian Monsoon Region and Southwest North America and a Mechanism for Associated Multidecadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3675.1	journal	May 2006
Coupled Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: An Observationally Constrained Idealized Model Qiu, Bo; Schneider, Niklas; Chen, Shuiming Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4190.1	journal	July 2007
Mechanisms of Decadal Variability of the Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Hogg, Andrew Mc C.; Killworth, Peter D.; Blundell, Jeffrey R. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 35, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO2687.1	journal	April 2005
Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory Hasselmann, K. Tellus, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v28i6.11316	journal	January 1976
Stochastic climate models, Part II Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability Frankignoul, Claude; Hasselmann, Klaus Tellus, Vol. 29, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v29i4.11362	journal	January 1977
Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011	journal	January 2011

Cited By (3)

Examining the salinity change in the upper Pacific Ocean during the Argo period Li, Guancheng; Zhang, Yuhong; Xiao, Jingen Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04912-z	journal	August 2019
Spatial and temporal analysis of changes in temperature extremes in the non-monsoon region of China from 1961 to 2016 Wang, Yuyang; Ding, Zhiyong; Ma, Yaoming Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 137, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02767-2	journal	January 2019
Decadal Ocean Heat Redistribution Since the Late 1990s and Its Association with Key Climate Modes Cheng, Lijing; Wang, Gongjie; Abraham, John Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040091	journal	November 2018

Similar Records

Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal Article · Sun Sep 08 20:00:00 EDT 2013 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1565088

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 20:00:00 EDT 2016 · Nature Communications · OSTI ID:1280976

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal Article · Tue May 11 20:00:00 EDT 2021 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1813444

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

Citation Formats

References (72)

Cited By (3)

Similar Records

Related Subjects