Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

doi:10.1038/ncomms11718

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal Article · Thu Jun 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718· OSTI ID:1280976

Meehl, Gerald A. ^[1]; ^[2]; Teng, Haiyan ^[2]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC) National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); USDOE Office of Science (SC) Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1280976

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Vol. 7; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
atmospheric moisture
climate variability
early-2000s hiatus
heat-content
intensification
mid-1970s shift
model
ocean recharge mechanism
warming hiatus
wind

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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