Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

Patricola, Christina M.; Wehner, Michael F.

doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

Journal Article · Thu Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Nature (London)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2· OSTI ID:1526550

Patricola, Christina M. ^[1]; Wehner, Michael F. ^[2]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1526550

Journal Information:: Nature (London), Journal Name: Nature (London) Journal Issue: 7731 Vol. 563; ISSN 0028-0836

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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