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Title: Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Abstract

Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state-of-the-art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall-related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Overall, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid-to-high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change DivisionPacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland Washington USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1497678
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-136949
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, and Song, Fengfei. Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL079900.
Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, & Song, Fengfei. Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079900.
Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, and Song, Fengfei. Tue . "Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079900.
@article{osti_1497678,
title = {Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming},
author = {Dong, Lu and Leung, L. Ruby and Song, Fengfei},
abstractNote = {Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state-of-the-art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall-related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Overall, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid-to-high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079900},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 22,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}