Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Cho, Eunsang; McCrary, Rachel R.; Jacobs, Jennifer M.

doi:10.1029/2021gl094985

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Journal Article · Fri Nov 05 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094985· OSTI ID:1837005

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Hydrological Sciences Lab.; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Earth Systems Research Center. Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016438; SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 1837005

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1830446

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 22 Vol. 48; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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