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Title: Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO 2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Globa-Scale Flood Risk Assessment

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO 2. Higher CO 2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO 2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  5. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1490571
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1483007
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; DE‐SC0012152
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Kooperman, Gabriel J., Fowler, Megan D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., and Randerson, James T. Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Globa-Scale Flood Risk Assessment. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL079901.
Kooperman, Gabriel J., Fowler, Megan D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., & Randerson, James T. Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Globa-Scale Flood Risk Assessment. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079901.
Kooperman, Gabriel J., Fowler, Megan D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., and Randerson, James T. Tue . "Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Globa-Scale Flood Risk Assessment". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079901.
@article{osti_1490571,
title = {Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Globa-Scale Flood Risk Assessment},
author = {Kooperman, Gabriel J. and Fowler, Megan D. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Koven, Charles D. and Lindsay, Keith and Pritchard, Michael S. and Swann, Abigail L. S. and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079901},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 22,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
This content will become publicly available on November 20, 2019
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