Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L.  S.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7

Title: Forest response to rising CO₂ drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Journal Article · Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7· OSTI ID:1436927

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Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Understanding how anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO₂ is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO₂ increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO₂ than Asian or African forests.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1436927

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1477286

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 68 works

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