Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

doi:10.1002/2017GL075124

Title: Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

Journal Article · Wed Jan 03 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075124· OSTI ID:1422597

^[1];

^[2]; Shi, X. ^[2];

^[3]; Hurtt, G. ^[3]; Collins, W. D. ^[4]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division. Climate Change Science Inst.
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Geographical Sciences
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO₂ in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO₂ and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1422597

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1476616

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 14 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (43)

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z	journal	August 2011
Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation Swann, A. L. S.; Fung, I. Y.; Chiang, J. C. H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116706108	journal	December 2011
Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change: LUC UNCERTAINTIES IN 20TH CENTURY CARBON BUDGET Arora, V. K.; Boer, G. J. Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02202.x	journal	February 2010
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016	journal	January 2016
The impact of nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the estimated terrestrial carbon balance and warming of land use change over the last 156 yr Zhang, Q.; Pitman, A. J.; Wang, Y. P. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013	journal	January 2013
The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015	journal	January 2015
Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3310	journal	June 2017
Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO ₂ Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways Jones, Chris; Robertson, Eddy; Arora, Vivek Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1	journal	July 2013
Local temperature response to land cover and management change driven by non-radiative processes Bright, Ryan M.; Davin, Edouard; O’Halloran, Thomas Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3250	journal	March 2017
Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO ₂ fertilization and climate variability : INFLUENCE OF CARBON-NITROGEN COUPLING Thornton, Peter E.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Rosenbloom, Nan A. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 21, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002868	journal	December 2007
Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization Rose, Steven K.; Ahammad, Helal; Eickhout, Bas Energy Economics, Vol. 34, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.06.004	journal	January 2012
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017	journal	January 2017
Uncertainty in plant functional type distributions and its impact on land surface models Hartley, A. J.; MacBean, N.; Georgievski, G. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 203 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.037	journal	December 2017
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Historical Land-Cover Change Impacts on Climate: Comparative Assessment of LUCID and CMIP5 Multimodel Experiments Lejeune, Quentin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Davin, Edouard L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0213.1	journal	February 2017
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2	journal	August 2011
MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets Friedl, Mark A.; Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Tan, Bin Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 114, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.016	journal	January 2010
The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-5375-2013	journal	January 2013
Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Pongratz, J. Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5125-2012	journal	January 2012
Nitrogen and phosphorous limitation reduces the effects of land use change on land carbon uptake or emission Wang, Ying-Ping; Zhang, Qian; Pitman, Andrew J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014001	journal	January 2015
Three distinct global estimates of historical land-cover change and land-use conversions for over 200 years Meiyappan, Prasanth; Jain, Atul K. Frontiers of Earth Science, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0314-2	journal	June 2012
Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Arora, V. K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1	journal	September 2013
Robust Identification of Local Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Cover Change in a Global Climate Model Winckler, J.; Reick, C. H.; Pongratz, J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0067.1	journal	February 2017
Sensitivity of land use change emission estimates to historical land use and land cover mapping: Land Use and Land Cover Mapping Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Maignan, Fabienne Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 31, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005360	journal	April 2017
Carbon density and anthropogenic land-use influences on net land-use change emissions Smith, S. J.; Rothwell, A. Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6323-2013	journal	January 2013
The representative concentration pathways: an overview van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z	journal	August 2011
Modeling the effects of two different land cover change data sets on the carbon stocks of plants and soils in concert with CO ₂ and climate change : EFFECTS OF TWO DIFFERENT LAND COVER CHANGE DATA SETS Jain, Atul K.; Yang, Xiaojuan Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002349	journal	May 2005
Global carbon budget 2014 Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015	journal	January 2015
Economic and Physical Modeling of land use in gcam 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Kyle, Page Climate Change Economics, Vol. 05, Issue 02 https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007814500031	journal	May 2014
Greenhouse Gas Policy Influences Climate via Direct Effects of Land-Use Change Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00377.1	journal	June 2013
Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study Pitman, A. J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Cruz, F. T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039076	journal	January 2009
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Lamarque, J. -F.; Bond, T. C.; Eyring, V. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010	journal	January 2010
On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model Bond-Lamberty, B.; Calvin, K.; Jones, A. D. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2545-2014	journal	January 2014
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100 Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1	journal	May 2012
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Lamarque, J. -F.; Bond, T. C.; Eyring, V. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-10-4963-2010	journal	January 2010
Global land cover mapping from MODIS: algorithms and early results Friedl, M. A.; McIver, D. K.; Hodges, J. C. F. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 83, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00078-0	journal	November 2002
Conservation policy and the measurement of forests Sexton, Joseph O.; Noojipady, Praveen; Song, Xiao-Peng Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2816	journal	October 2015
From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chini, L. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014	journal	January 2014
Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000045	journal	January 2011
The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014	journal	January 2014
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000070493	text	January 2017
Global carbon budget 2014 Le Quéré, Corinne; Moriarty, Róisín; Andrew, Robbie M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000108127	text	January 2015
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000060650	text	January 2016

Figures / Tables (4)

Similar Records

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

Journal Article · Thu Jun 09 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences · OSTI ID:1422597

Sharma, Bharat; Kumar, Jitendra; Collier, Nathan; +2 more

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Journal Article · Fri May 21 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Earth System Dynamics (Online) · OSTI ID:1422597

Obermeier, Wolfgang A.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Loughran, Tammas; +19 more

Combining satellite data and biogeochemical models to estimate global effects of human-induced land cover change on carbon emissions and primary productivity

Journal Article · Tue Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 1999 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · OSTI ID:1422597

DeFries, R S; Field, C B; Fung, I; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
land cover
land use
uncertainty
carbon
climate
Earth system

Title: Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

Citation Formats

References (43)

Figures / Tables (4)

Similar Records

Related Subjects