Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

doi:10.1002/2016JG003384

Title: Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

Journal Article · Thu Jan 26 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384· OSTI ID:1394452

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East China Normal Univ. (ECNU), Shanghai (China). Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting and Tiantong National Field Observation Station for Forest Ecosystem, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences
Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States). US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), Toulouse (France)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canada). School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE); Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE)
Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China). College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Alfred Wegener Inst. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth, Yokohama (Japan). Dept. of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research
Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE); Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE); Irstea, Villeurbanne (France)
Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). School of Forest Resources
Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China). College of Global Change and Earth System Science
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE); Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE)
Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
National Inst. of Polar Research, Tachikawa (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology; Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Dept. for Earth System Science

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m^-2yr^-1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m^-2yr^-1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m^-2yr^-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); European Union (EU); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; SC0008270; SC0014085; SC00114085; EF 1137293; OIA-1301789; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1394452

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402146; OSTI ID: 1476459

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 2; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 42 works

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