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Title: Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis

Abstract

When making computational simulation predictions of multi-physics engineering systems, sources of uncertainty in the prediction need to be acknowledged and included in the analysis within the current paradigm of striving for simulation credibility. A thermal analysis of an aerospace geometry was performed at Sandia National Laboratories. For this analysis a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification workflow provided structure for the analysis, resulting in the quantification of significant uncertainty sources including spatial numerical error and material property parametric uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the parametric uncertainty and numerical errors were independent and separable for this application. This hypothesis was supported by performing uncertainty quantification simulations at multiple mesh resolutions, while being limited by resources to minimize the number of medium and high resolution simulations. Based on this supported hypothesis, a prediction including parametric uncertainty and a systematic mesh bias are used to make a margin assessment that avoids unnecessary uncertainty obscuring the results and optimizes computing resources.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1474789
Report Number(s):
SAND2018-1007
668060
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; 42 ENGINEERING; 71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS

Citation Formats

Schroeder, Benjamin B., Silva, Humberto, and Smith, Kyle David. Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1474789.
Schroeder, Benjamin B., Silva, Humberto, & Smith, Kyle David. Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis. United States. doi:10.2172/1474789.
Schroeder, Benjamin B., Silva, Humberto, and Smith, Kyle David. Mon . "Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis". United States. doi:10.2172/1474789. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1474789.
@article{osti_1474789,
title = {Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis},
author = {Schroeder, Benjamin B. and Silva, Humberto and Smith, Kyle David},
abstractNote = {When making computational simulation predictions of multi-physics engineering systems, sources of uncertainty in the prediction need to be acknowledged and included in the analysis within the current paradigm of striving for simulation credibility. A thermal analysis of an aerospace geometry was performed at Sandia National Laboratories. For this analysis a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification workflow provided structure for the analysis, resulting in the quantification of significant uncertainty sources including spatial numerical error and material property parametric uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the parametric uncertainty and numerical errors were independent and separable for this application. This hypothesis was supported by performing uncertainty quantification simulations at multiple mesh resolutions, while being limited by resources to minimize the number of medium and high resolution simulations. Based on this supported hypothesis, a prediction including parametric uncertainty and a systematic mesh bias are used to make a margin assessment that avoids unnecessary uncertainty obscuring the results and optimizes computing resources.},
doi = {10.2172/1474789},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}