The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China

Journal Article · Mon Aug 06 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Energy Policy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.017· OSTI ID:1470890

Ou, Shiqi  ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong  ^[1]; Qi, Liang ^[2]; Li, Jie ^[2]; He, Xin ^[3]; Przesmitzki, Steven ^[3]

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1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center
2. China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin (China)
3. Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center, Detroit, MI (United States)

We report that the Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation (dual-credit policy) was enacted by the Chinese government in 2017 to stimulate the fuel-efficient and electrification technologies in the China's passenger vehicle market. Here, this study summarizes the dual-credit policy and develops the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits Model to quantify the impacts of this policy on consumer choices and industry profits, where internal subsidies as decision variables are used to represent industry responses to the policy. Scenarios in 2016–2020 are simulated and discussed. Key findings from the model results include: (1) the Corporate Average Fuel Consumption rules alone may stimulate more plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales than the dual-credit policy; however, (2) the dual-credit policy could stimulate more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in market, compared to other policy scenarios; (3) the industry could “lose” approximately $2122/vehicle by 2020 under the dual-credit policy; (4) battery electric sedans with a range greater than 250 km and plug-in hybrid SUVs could be popular under the dual-credit policy; (5) credit allocations for BEVs in the dual-credit policy can influence the PEV production; and (6) reduction of the fuel-efficient technology costs helps to minimize profit losses impacted by the policy.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1470890
• Journal Information: Energy Policy, Vol. 121, Issue C; ISSN 0301-4215
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
China's vehicle market
Policy analysis
Quantitative model
Corporate average fuel consumption
Plug-in electric vehicle
Industry profits