Forecasting the Impact of Dual-credit Policy (2021-2023) on China's Electric Vehicle Market

Conference · Thu Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 2020

OSTI ID:1671388

Ou, Shawn ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[1]; He, Xin ^[2]; Yu, Rujie ^[3]; Bouchard, Jessey ^[2]; Przesmitzki, Steven V. ^[2]

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1. ORNL
2. Aramco Services Company
3. China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin China

China is well known for its ambition on large-scale vehicle electrification which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies. This study adopts the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation” which was released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021-2023, so called dual-credit policy (2021-2023). It is found that, under the dual-credit policy (2021-2023), the sales of low fuel consumption conventional vehicles will increase faster than they were in 2018-2020, and the share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.4% by 2023 if it keeps the expansion as it was in 2017. Besides, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plugin hybrid SUVs would be the most popular PEV types.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1671388
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English