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Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Journal Article · · Water Resources Research
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023452· OSTI ID:1561113
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [1];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were created without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; so, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This report has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs, and then applied the resulting scenarios to an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3560 km3 to 6600 km3. The results show that, 1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios; 2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values; 3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies; and 4) non-water sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES) (SC-22)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1561113
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1470791
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--126476
Journal Information:
Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 54; ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (2)

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways journal January 2020
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems journal January 2019

Figures / Tables (12)

Table 1(p. 21)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 22)table Table 2
Table 3(p. 23)table Table 3
Table 4(p. 24)table Table 4
Table 5(p. 25)table Table 5
Figure 1(p. 26)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 27)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 28)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 29)figure Figure 4
Figure 5(p. 30)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 31)figure Figure 6
Figure 7(p. 32)figure Figure 7

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GCAM
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
water constraints
water demand