Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Journal Article · Mon May 25 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Global Environmental Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004· OSTI ID:1265481

Absar, Syeda Mariya ^[1]; Preston, Benjamin L. ^[1]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1265481

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1250374

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Journal Name: Global Environmental Change Journal Issue: C Vol. 33; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
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