Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450

Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Journal Article · Mon Apr 02 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450· OSTI ID:1455294

; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich more »

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5Â°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1455294

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-131570; KP1703020

Journal Information:: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119; ISSN 1364-503X

Publisher:: The Royal Society Publishing

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe National Academy of Sciences NAS https://doi.org/10.48350/167146	text	January 2014
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Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

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