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Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Abstract

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1455294
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131570
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X; KP1703020
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences; Journal Volume: 376; Journal Issue: 2119
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, & Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Mon . "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C". United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
@article{osti_1455294,
title = {Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Wartenburger, Richard and Guillod, Benoit P. and Hirsch, Annette L. and Vogel, Martha M. and Brovkin, Victor and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Schaller, Nathalie and Boysen, Lena and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan and Greve, Peter and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Krisztin, Tamas and Mitchell, Daniel and Popp, Alexander and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Sillmann, Jana and Stehfest, Elke},
abstractNote = {This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2119,
volume = 376,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Apr 02 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Apr 02 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}