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Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Journal Article · · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
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  1. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  2. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  4. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  9. School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  11. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1437030
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1455294
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--131570
Journal Information:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Journal Name: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Journal Issue: 2119 Vol. 376; ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (15)

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land journal March 2018
Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China journal July 2018
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes journal August 2019
Investigating the Role of the Relative Humidity in the Co‐Occurrence of Temperature and Heat Stress Extremes in CMIP5 Projections journal October 2019
The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming journal June 2018
Intensity and Stationarity Analysis of Land Use Change Based on CART Algorithm journal August 2019
The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement
  • Mitchell, Dann; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0066
journal April 2018
Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges: Land feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves journal June 2018
Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses journal October 2018
Drought Management Planning Policy: From Europe to Spain journal March 2019
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land text January 2018
Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model’s sensitivity to land cover text January 2018
Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges text January 2019
Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model's sensitivity to land cover journal January 2018
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi journal January 2019

Figures / Tables (16)

Figure 1(p. 3)figure Figure 1
Table 1(p. 5)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 6)table Table 2
Table 3(p. 7)table Table 3
Figure 2(p. 8)figure Figure 2
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Figure 4(p. 10)figure Figure 4
Figure 5(p. 11)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 12)figure Figure 6
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Figure 8(p. 14)figure Figure 8
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Figure 11(p. 17)figure Figure 11
Figure 12(p. 18)figure Figure 12
Table 4(p. 19)table Table 4

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Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
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Related Subjects

1.5°C scenarios
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate extremes
climate projections
land-use changes
land–climate interactions
regional climate change