Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Daithi; Wehner, Michael; Krishnan, Harinarayan

doi:10.1002/2016GL071681

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

Journal Article · Thu Feb 16 04:00:00 EST 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071681· OSTI ID:1436150

^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Here, the effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ~1.0° and ~0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21st century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1436150

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402165

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 44; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (34)

Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations Wang, Xiaolan L.; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058650	journal	February 2014
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1 Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000276	journal	November 2014
Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060997	journal	July 2014
A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate Camus, Paula; Menéndez, Melisa; Méndez, Fernando J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 119, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010141	journal	November 2014
Threshold modelling of spatially dependent non-stationary extremes with application to hurricane-induced wave heights Northrop, Paul J.; Jonathan, Philip Environmetrics, Vol. 22, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/env.1106	journal	March 2011
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values Coles, Stuart Springer Series in Statistics https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0	book	January 2001
Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights Wang, Xiaolan L.; Swail, Val R. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 26, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0080-x	journal	November 2005
Alleviating the Garden Sprinkler Effect in wind wave models Tolman, Hendrik L. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 4, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00004-5	journal	June 2002
Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves Hoeke, Ron K.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Kruger, Jens C. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 108 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.006	journal	September 2013
Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario Hemer, Mark A.; Katzfey, Jack; Trenham, Claire E. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.09.008	journal	October 2013
Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C. A.; Barnard, P. L. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 96 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.004	journal	December 2015
TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis No authors listed Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2012.04.093	journal	January 2012
Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble Hemer, Mark A.; Fan, Yalin; Mori, Nobuhito Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1791	journal	January 2013
Advent of extreme events in predator populations Chaurasia, Sudhanshu Shekhar; Verma, Umesh Kumar; Sinha, Sudeshna Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67517-1	journal	June 2020
Statistics of Extremes Davison, A. C.; Huser, R. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020133	journal	April 2015
Effect of Surface Waves on Air–Sea Momentum Exchange. Part II: Behavior of Drag Coefficient under Tropical Cyclones Moon, Il-Ju; Ginis, Isaac; Hara, Tetsu Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 61, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<2334:EOSWOA>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 2004
Computations and Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer in a Gravity-Wave Specturm. Part II: Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer for Application in Wave Models Hasselmann, S.; Hasselmann, K.; Allender, J. H. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 15, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1985)015<1378:CAPOTN>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1985
Numerical Simulation of Sea Surface Directional Wave Spectra under Hurricane Wind Forcing Moon, Il-Ju; Ginis, Isaac; Hara, Tetsu Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 33, Issue 8, p. 1680-1706 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<1680:nsossd>2.0.co;2	journal	August 2003
A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model Hurrell, James W.; Hack, James J.; Shea, Dennis Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1	journal	October 2008
Semiempirical Dissipation Source Functions for Ocean Waves. Part I: Definition, Calibration, and Validation Ardhuin, Fabrice; Rogers, Erick; Babanin, Alexander V. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 40, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4324.1	journal	September 2010
Performance of NCEP Regional Wave Models in Predicting Peak Sea States during the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season* Chao, Yung Y.; Tolman, Hendrik L. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222309.1	journal	October 2010
Numerical Simulation of Sea Surface Directional Wave Spectra under Hurricane Wind Forcing Moon, Il-Ju; Ginis, Isaac; Hara, Tetsu Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 33, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2410.1	journal	August 2003
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Advancing Wind-Waves Climate Science: The COWCLIP Project Hemer, Mark A.; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Weisse, Ralf Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00184.1	journal	June 2012
Investigating Global Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hierarchy of AGCMs: The Role of Model Resolution Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00012.1	journal	January 2013
Ocean Warming Effect on Surface Gravity Wave Climate Change for the End of the Twenty-First Century Fan, Yalin; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00410.1	journal	August 2013
Exploratory High-Resolution Climate Simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) Bacmeister, Julio T.; Wehner, Michael F.; Neale, Richard B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00387.1	journal	May 2014
Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations Wehner, Michael; Reed, Kevin A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00311.1	journal	May 2015
Future Projections of Extreme Ocean Wave Climates and the Relation to Tropical Cyclones: Ensemble Experiments of MRI-AGCM3.2H Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00711.1	journal	December 2015
Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1	journal	December 2015
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values Smith, Eric P. Technometrics, Vol. 44, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1198/tech.2002.s73	journal	November 2002
Statistics of Extremes. Stuart, Alan; Gumbel, E. J. Economica, Vol. 27, Issue 106 https://doi.org/10.2307/2550914	journal	May 1960
Statistics of Extremes. B., W. R.; Gumbel, E. J. The Incorporated Statistician, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2307/2987417	journal	July 1960
Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming Mori, Nobuhito; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mase, Hajime Hydrological Research Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 0 https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.4.15	journal	January 2010

Cited By (6)

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey: CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN TX Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075888	journal	December 2017
The effect of changing spatial resolution in global dynamic wave models Mentaschi, Lorenzo ESS Open Archive https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10500014.1	posted_content	January 2018
A modelling-based assessment of the imprint of storms on wind waves in the western Mediterranean Sea Toomey, Tim; Sayol, Juan M.; Marcos, Marta International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5849	journal	September 2018
An evaluation of the consistency of extremes in gridded precipitation data sets Timmermans, Ben; Wehner, Michael; Cooley, Daniel Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4537-0	journal	January 2019
Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections Morim, Joao; Hemer, Mark; Wang, Xiaolan L. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5	journal	August 2019
An algorithmic framework for the optimization of computationally expensive bi-fidelity black-box problems Müller, Juliane INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research, Vol. 58, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/03155986.2019.1607810	journal	June 2019

Similar Records

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Journal Article · Sun Dec 11 23:00:00 EST 2022 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1961572

Azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of tropical cyclones in global climate models and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution

Journal Article · Tue Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 2019 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1659515

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
climate
extremes
modeling
tropical cyclone
wind waves

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

Citation Formats

References (34)

Cited By (6)

Similar Records

Related Subjects