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Title: CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027200· OSTI ID:1429535
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
  2. Met Office Exeter UK
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Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low‐level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Grant/Contract Number:
DE‐AC52‐07NA27344; DE‐SC0014122; AC52-07NA27344; SC0014122
OSTI ID:
1429535
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1429536; OSTI ID: 1488790
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-731632
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 123 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 27 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Figures / Tables (21)

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