Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Graham, D.; Torn, M. S.

doi:10.1002/2017JG004035

Title: Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Journal Article · Fri Nov 17 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004035· OSTI ID:1427642

Grant, R. F. ^[1]; Mekonnen, Z. A. ^[2]; Riley, W. J. ^[2]; Wainwright, H. M. ^[2];

^[3]; Torn, M. S. ^[2]

Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Science Division
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygon al landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC02‐05CH11231; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1427642

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1433101

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 12; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 36 works

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