Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.

doi:10.1029/2018jg004644

Title: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Journal Article · Fri Mar 29 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jg004644· OSTI ID:1574327

^[1];

^[2];

^[2]

Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Model projections of permafrost thaw during the next century diverge widely. Here we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect permafrost thaw in a polygonal tundra at Barrow AK. The model was tested against diurnal and seasonal variation in energy exchange, soil heat flux, soil temperature (T_s), and active layer depth (ALD) measured during 2014 and 2015, and interannual variation in ALD measured from 1991 to 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, increases in T_a and precipitation (P) to 6.2 °C and 27% above current values, and in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a) to 763 μmol mol^-1, altered energy exchange by increasing leaf area index of dominant sedge relative to that of moss. Increased Ca and sedge leaf area index imposed greater stomatal control of transpiration and reduced soil heat fluxes, slowing soil warming, limiting increases in evapotranspiration, and thereby causing gradual soil wetting. Consequently, increases in surface T_s and ALD of 2.4–4.7 °C and 21–24 cm above current values were modeled after 70 years. ALD increase was slowed if model boundary conditions were altered to improve landscape drainage. These rates were smaller than those of earlier modeling studies, some of which did not account for changes in vegetation, but are closer to those derived from current studies of warming impacts in the region. Therefore, accounting for climate change effects on vegetation density and composition, and consequent effects on surface energy budgets, will cause slower increases in T_s and ALD to be modeled during climate change simulations.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1574327

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1515790

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Vol. 124, Issue 5; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 20 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (40)

Accelerated Nutrient Cycling and Increased Light Competition Will Lead to 21st Century Shrub Expansion in North American Arctic Tundra Mekonnen, Zelalem A.; Riley, William J.; Grant, Robert F. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 123, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JG004319	journal	May 2018
Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra Leffler, A. Joshua; Klein, Eric S.; Oberbauer, Steven F. Oecologia, Vol. 181, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3543-8	journal	January 2016
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C. Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338	journal	April 2015
The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Castanha, C.; Porras, R. C. Science, Vol. 355, Issue 6332 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal1319	journal	March 2017
Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape Kumar, Jitendra; Collier, Nathan; Bisht, Gautam The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016	journal	January 2016
Nitrous oxide emissions from a fallow and wheat field as affected by increased soil temperatures Kamp, T.; Steindl, H.; Hantschel, R. E. Biology and Fertility of Soils, Vol. 27, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003740050438	journal	July 1998
Vegetation-soil-thaw-depth relationships along a low-arctic bioclimate gradient, Alaska: synthesis of information from the ATLAS studies Walker, D. A.; Jia, G. J.; Epstein, H. E. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.452	journal	January 2003
Ammonia in the summertime Arctic marine boundary layer: sources, sinks, and implications Wentworth, Gregory R.; Murphy, Jennifer G.; Croft, Betty Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
Ecosystem CO ₂ and CH ₄ exchange in a mixed tundra and a fen within a hydrologically diverse Arctic landscape: 2. Modeled impacts of climate change : CO Grant, R. F. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002889	journal	July 2015
Ten years of measurements and modeling of soil temperature changes and their effects on permafrost in Northwestern Alaska Batir, Joseph F.; Hornbach, Matthew J.; Blackwell, David D. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 148 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.009	journal	January 2017
Systematic errors in ground heat flux estimation and their correction: SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN GROUND HEAT FLUX Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Heusinkveld, B. Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010203	journal	September 2012
From The Cover: Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome Walker, M. D.; Wahren, C. H.; Hollister, R. D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0503198103	journal	January 2006
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming Koven, C. D.; Ringeval, B.; Friedlingstein, P. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 36 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108	journal	August 2011
Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming Lawrence, David M.; Swenson, Sean C. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045504	journal	October 2011
Estimating uncertainties in individual eddy covariance flux measurements: A comparison of methods and a proposed new method Billesbach, D. P. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 151, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.001	journal	March 2011
Nonlinear CO ₂ flux response to 7 years of experimentally induced permafrost thaw Mauritz, Marguerite; Bracho, Rosvel; Celis, Gerardo Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13661	journal	March 2017
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis Harp, D. R.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L. The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016	journal	January 2016
The heat flow through oceanic and continental crust and the heat loss of the Earth Sclater, J. G.; Jaupart, C.; Galson, D. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/RG018i001p00269	journal	January 1980
Decadal variations of active-layer thickness in moisture-controlled landscapes, Barrow, Alaska Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.; Streletskiy, Dmitry A.; Nelson, Frederick E. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG001248	journal	January 2010
Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Hollister, Robert D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1465	journal	April 2012
Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models Koven, Charles D.; Riley, William J.; Stern, Alex Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1	journal	March 2013
Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw Avis, Christopher A.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Meissner, Katrin J. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1160	journal	June 2011
Geophysical estimation of shallow permafrost distribution and properties in an ice-wedge polygon-dominated Arctic tundra region Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan; Ulrich, Craig GEOPHYSICS, Vol. 81, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1190/geo2015-0175.1	journal	January 2016
Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO ₂ and CH ₄ emissions Lawrence, D. M.; Koven, C. D.; Swenson, S. C. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011	journal	September 2015
Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat Bintanja, R.; Selten, F. M. Nature, Vol. 509, Issue 7501 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13259	journal	May 2014
Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in arctic coastal wetlands Liljedahl, A. K.; Hinzman, L. D.; Harazono, Y. Biogeosciences, Vol. 8, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-3375-2011	journal	January 2011
Recent changes in the active layer thickness across the northern hemisphere Luo, Dongliang; Wu, Qingbai; Jin, Huijun Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol. 75, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5229-2	journal	March 2016
Modelling impacts of recent warming on seasonal carbon exchange in higher latitudes of North America Mekonnen, Zelalem A.; Grant, Robert F.; Schwalm, Christopher Arctic Science, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0009	journal	December 2018
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003	journal	August 2014
Isotopic insights into methane production, oxidation, and emissions in Arctic polygon tundra Vaughn, Lydia J. S.; Conrad, Mark E.; Bill, Markus Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13281	journal	June 2016
Coincident aboveground and belowground autonomous monitoring to quantify covariability in permafrost, soil, and vegetation properties in Arctic tundra: ABOVEGROUND AND BELOWGROUND CODYNAMICS Dafflon, Baptiste; Oktem, Rusen; Peterson, John Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003724	journal	June 2017
Identifying multiscale zonation and assessing the relative importance of polygon geomorphology on carbon fluxes in an Arctic tundra ecosystem: ZONATION APPROACH IN AN ARCTIC ECOSYSTEM Wainwright, Haruko M.; Dafflon, Baptiste; Smith, Lydia J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002799	journal	April 2015
Hydrological connectivity and seasonal storage change of tundra ponds in a polar oasis environment, Canadian High Arctic Woo, Ming-Ko; Guan, Xiu Juan Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.565	journal	January 2006
Modeling Elevated Carbon Dioxide Effects on Water Relations, Water Use, and Growth of Irrigated Sorghum Grant, R. F.; Kimball, B. A.; Wall, G. W. Agronomy Journal, Vol. 96, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2004.1693	journal	January 2004
Responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to experimental warming: a meta-analysis Lu, Meng; Zhou, Xuhui; Yang, Qiang Ecology, Vol. 94, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0279.1	journal	March 2013
Microtopographic controls on ecosystem functioning in the Arctic Coastal Plain Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Zulueta, R. C. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG001241	journal	January 2011
Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 2. Microtopography Determines How CO ₂ and CH ₄ Exchange Responds to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation : GHG Exchange in Arctic Polygonal Tundra Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004037	journal	December 2017
Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation : Active Layer Depth in Polygonal Tundra Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004035	journal	December 2017
Ammonia in the summertime Arctic marine boundary layer: sources, sinks and implications Wentworth, G. R.; Murphy, J. G.; Croft, B. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 15, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-29973-2015	journal	January 2015
Systematic errors in ground heat flux estimation and their correction Gentine, Pierre; Entekhabi, D.; Heusinkveld, B. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8891h06	text	January 2012

Similar Records

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO₂ and CH₄ Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Journal Article · Fri Mar 29 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences · OSTI ID:1574327

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; +2 more

Large carbon cycle sensitivities to climate across a permafrost thaw gradient in subarctic Sweden

Journal Article · Fri Feb 22 00:00:00 EST 2019 · The Cryosphere (Online) · OSTI ID:1574327

Chang, Kuang -Yu; Riley, William J.; Crill, Patrick M.; +3 more

Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014

Journal Article · Mon Dec 06 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · OSTI ID:1574327

Varner, Ruth K.; Crill, Patrick M.; Frolking, Steve; +6 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Citation Formats

References (40)

Similar Records

Related Subjects