Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.089· OSTI ID:1414544

Turner, Sean W. D. ; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1414544
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-125443; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Energy, Vol. 141, Issue C; ISSN 0360-5442
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English