Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Santos da Silva, Silvia R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Iyer, Gokul; Wild, Thomas B.; Binsted, Matthew; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando; Patel, Pralit; Snyder, Abigail C.; Vernon, Chris R.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21502-y

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Journal Article · Wed Feb 24 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21502-y· OSTI ID:1777214

^[1]; Hejazi, Mohamad I. ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[2]; ^[4]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]

Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Inter-American Development; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1777214

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--154178

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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