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Cyber Deterrence and Stability

Technical Report ·
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1405058· OSTI ID:1405058
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  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1405058
Report Number(s):
PNNL--26932; 453040357
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Arms Control
Biological Weapons Convention
Chemical Weapons Convention
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
Cyber
Cyber Deterrence
Deterrence
Treaties