Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

doi:10.1002/2016GL068060

Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

Journal Article · Tue Apr 05 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068060· OSTI ID:1402382

Schnell, Jordan L. ^[1]; Prather, Michael J. ^[1]; Josse, Beatrice ^[2]; ^[3]; Horowitz, Larry W. ^[4]; Zeng, Guang ^[5]; Shindell, Drew T. ^[6]; Faluvegi, Greg ^[7]

Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine California USA
GAME/CNRM, Météo‐France, CNRS–Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Toulouse France
UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton New Jersey USA
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton New Jersey USA
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder New Zealand
Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham North Carolina USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute Columbia University New York New York USA

Abstract

The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present‐day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year 2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high‐percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose that climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

View Accepted Manuscript (Publisher)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0007021

OSTI ID:: 1402382

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 43; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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