Unraveling El Niño's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding

Journal Article · Tue Nov 15 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071190· OSTI ID:1402243

Zhang, Wenjun  ^[1]; Jin, Fei‐Fei  ^[2]; Stuecker, Malte F.  ^[3]; Wittenberg, Andrew T.  ^[4]; Timmermann, Axel  ^[5]; Ren, Hong‐Li  ^[6]; Kug, Jong‐Seong  ^[7]; Cai, Wenju ^[8]; Cane, Mark  ^[9]

---

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, ILCEC/CIC‐FEMD Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China
2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu Hawaii USA, Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China
3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu Hawaii USA
4. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton New Jersey USA
5. IPRC, SOEST University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu Hawaii USA
6. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China
7. School of Environmental Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and Technology Pohang South Korea
8. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Victoria Australia
9. Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA

Abstract Strong El Niño events are followed by massive summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River basin (YRB), home to about a third of the population in China. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the main source of seasonal climate predictability for many parts of the Earth, the mechanisms of its connection to the East Asian monsoon remain largely elusive. For instance, the traditional Niño3.4 ENSO index only captures precipitation anomalies over East Asia in boreal winter but not during the summer. Here we show that there exists a robust year‐round and predictable relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon. This connection is revealed by combining equatorial (Niño3.4) and off‐equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (Niño‐A index) into a new metric that captures ENSO's various aspects, such as its interaction with the annual cycle and its different flavors. This extended view of ENSO complexity improves predictability of YRB summer flooding events.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: DE‐SC000511
• OSTI ID: 1402243
• Journal Information: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 43 Journal Issue: 21; ISSN 0094-8276
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English