Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, Ministry of Education Field Observation and Research Station for Ecology of East Asian Migratory Birds and Their Habitats Beijing China
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China, College of Ocean Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing China, CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing China
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
Abstract Marked by large interannual variability, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has profound socio‐economic impacts through its dominant influence on floods and droughts. Improving predictions of the interannual variations of EASM rainfall has important implications for over 20% of the world's population. While coupled modeling systems have demonstrated some prediction skill related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation with remote influence on EASM rainfall, the impact of soil moisture has heretofore not been systematically investigated. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the soil moisture and soil temperature in a coupled climate model with a global land data assimilation product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the interannual variations of EASM rainfall, capturing the notable shift to a “wetter‐South‐drier‐North” rainfall pattern in China in the early 1990s. Hindcast simulations initialized with the well‐balanced states from a coupled simulation with WCDA also show significant multi‐year rainfall prediction skill over East China and Tibetan Plateau. Improvements in predicting the EASM rainfall are attributed to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling in large areas over China, which allows improved predictions of soil moisture to influence precipitation through soil moisture‐precipitation feedback, and the effects of land anomalies on the EASM circulation. This study highlights the significant contribution of land to the interannual predictability of EASM rainfall, with a great potential to advance skillful interannual predictions of benefit to the large populations influenced by the annual whiplash of the summer monsoon rain.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; 2017YFA0603703; 41875127; 91737307; 91747101; 2019QZKK0206; KP1703010
- OSTI ID:
- 1767333
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1767837; OSTI ID: 1786852
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-158849; e2020EF001762
- Journal Information:
- Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Vol. 9 Journal Issue: 2; ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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