Outlook for activity and structural change

Book · Thu Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:138800

The level of energy-using activities is continuing to increase throughout the world, but the rates of likely growth differ among regions. Over the next 20 years, manufacturing production is expected to grow at a rapid pace in parts of the developing world, and moderately in the OECD countries. In the Former East Bloc, it seems likely to stagnate or decline for much of the 1990s, but could then grow at a moderate pace if the transition to a market economy is successfully managed. Domestic passenger travel seems likely to increase everywhere, and growth in international travel will be especially strong. Freight transport activity is difficult to evaluate in the aggregate, since the composition of goods changes over time, but increase is expected in all regions, especially in the developing countries. Structural change within sectors will have significant impacts on energy use. In manufacturing, faster growth in light industry will lead to lower energy intensity in the OECD countries and especially in the Former East Bloc. The outlook in the LDCs suggests somewhat higher growth in energy-intensive industries, but this trend will vary among countries. In passenger travel, structural change is pointing toward higher energy intensity in most of the world as the role of automobiles and air travel continues to grow. Increase in the use of trucks is pushing in a similar direction in freight transport. In the residential sector, structural change will have only a moderate impact in the OECD countries, where per capita levels of home services are already high, but will push energy use significantly upward in the LDCs, and to a lesser extent, in the Former East Bloc. 17 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

• OSTI ID: 138800
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
BUILDING MATERIALS
CARGO
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
EASTERN EUROPE
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
FORECASTING
FRANCE
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
HUMAN POPULATIONS
ITALY
JAPAN
MANUFACTURING
METALS
NORWAY
OECD
PAPER INDUSTRY
PRICES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SECTORAL ANALYSIS
SERVICE SECTOR
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
SWEDEN
TRAVEL
UNITED KINGDOM
USA
USSR
WASTE MANAGEMENT