Historic trends in transportation

Book · Thu Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:138797

In all regions, there has been a shift in modal structure toward automobiles and airplanes, though the shares of the latter are much lower in the Former East Bloc and the LDCs than in the OECD countries. This shift has caused growth in the aggregate energy intensity of travel. The energy intensity of automobile travel declined considerably in the United States, but changed little in Western Europe and Japan, where growth in vehicle sizes and power counterbalanced technical efficiency gains. In the Former East Bloc and the LDCs, the extent of any decrease in automobile energy intensity is difficult to judge, but appears to have been modest. In contrast to automobiles, the energy intensity of air travel fell dramatically in the OECD countries. Freight transport per unit GDP declined somewhat in the United States and Japan, but changed little in Western Europe and (probably) the Former East Bloc. In the LDCs, trends in the tonne-km/GDP ratio have differed among those countries for which the author had historical data. As in travel, there has been a shift toward a more energy-intensive structure, in this case from rail to trucks, whose flexibility and convenience provide advantages for moving many manufactured products. In contrast to automobiles, there has not been much decline in truck energy intensity, at least in the OECD countries. In some LDCs, the shift from gasoline to diesel trucks has reduced energy intensity somewhat. There has been more decline in the energy intensity of rail freight transport, though some of this is also a result of fuel switching. The combination of growth in activity, structural change toward more energy-intensive modes, and a relatively modest (in most cases) decline in modal energy intensities has led to a considerable growth in transportation energy use throughout the world. Since oil products account for almost all transport energy use, this growth has been the key pushing upward on world oil demand. 21 refs., 25 figs., 6 tabs.

• OSTI ID: 138797
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
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AUTOMOBILES
BRAZIL
BUSES
CARGO
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
DEMAND
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
EASTERN EUROPE
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
FRANCE
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TRAINS
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