Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072945· OSTI ID:1465350
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research; University of Colorado
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab., Physical Sciences Division
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
  4. Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program
+ Show Author Affiliations
Upwelling in the California Current System (CCS) sustains a productive ecosystem and is mediated by alongshore, equatorward wind stress. A decades-old hypothesis proposes that global warming will accelerate these upwelling favorable winds. Recent analyses provide empirical support for upwelling intensification in the poleward portion of the CCS. However, these studies rely on proxies for upwelling and are limited in their ability to distinguish anthropogenic forcing from internal climate variability. Here in this paper we estimate simulated changes in CCS upwelling from 1920 to 2100 using monthly output from a single climate model ensemble, where divergences among simulations can be attributed entirely to internal climate variability. Our projections suggest that CCS upwelling will become more intense in the spring and less intense in the summer as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Anthropogenic changes in upwelling will emerge primarily in the second half of the century.
Research Organization:
Krell Inst., Ames, IA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-97ER25308
OSTI ID:
1465350
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1377935
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 44; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (44)

Spatially resolved upwelling in the California Current System and its connections to climate variability journal May 2014
Poleward displacement of coastal upwelling-favorable winds in the ocean's eastern boundary currents through the 21st century: UPWELLING RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE journal August 2015
Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure: OCEAN CARBON UPTAKE PROJECTIONS journal September 2016
Remote forcing of subsurface currents and temperatures near the northern limit of the California Current System: REMOTE TEMPERATURE AND CURRENT FORCING journal October 2016
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability journal December 2010
Integrated Assessment of Wind Effects on Central California’s Pelagic Ecosystem journal February 2013
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions journal August 2011
Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems journal March 2015
Coastal upwelling in the California current system journal January 1983
Linking predators to seasonality of upwelling: Using food web indicators and path analysis to infer trophic connections journal August 2012
Synoptic-scale upwelling indices and predictions of phyto- and zooplankton populations journal January 2014
On the changing seasonality over the North Pacific: CHANGING SEASONALITY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC journal May 2002
Seasonal renewal of the California Current: The spring transition off California journal January 2003
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS journal September 2005
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming journal January 2007
Decadal variations in the California Current upwelling cells journal January 2007
Phenology of coastal upwelling in the California Current journal January 2009
Observations of increased wind-driven coastal upwelling off central California journal January 2010
Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model: FUTURE NUTRIENT SUPPLY TO THE CCE journal November 2010
Buoy observations of the atmosphere along the west coast of the United States, 1981–1990 journal January 1995
Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming journal April 1999
Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change journal February 2015
Timescales for detection of trends in the ocean carbon sink journal February 2016
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño journal May 2010
Optimal Environmental Conditions and Anomalous Ecosystem Responses: Constraining Bottom-up Controls of Phytoplankton Biomass in the California Current System journal June 2016
Wind strength and biological productivity in upwelling systems: an idealized study journal September 2003
Influence of ocean winds on the pelagic ecosystem in upwelling regions journal February 2008
Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change journal May 2011
Winter and summer upwelling modes and their biological importance in the California Current Ecosystem: WINTER AND SUMMER UPWELLING MODES journal April 2011
Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems journal July 2014
Photosynthesis and Fish Production in the Sea journal October 1969
Coastal Ocean Upwelling journal January 1990
Optimal Environmental Window and Pelagic Fish Recruitment Success in Upwelling Areas journal April 1989
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions journal August 2009
Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability: Implications for Prediction journal February 2011
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability journal August 2015
Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability journal March 2014
Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends journal August 2015
The Benguela Upwelling System: Quantifying the Sensitivity to Resolution and Coastal Wind Representation in a Global Climate Model journal December 2015
The Warming of the California Current System: Dynamics and Ecosystem Implications journal March 2005
Upwelling limitation by onshore geostrophic flow journal January 2010
Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems journal December 2015
Trends in coastal upwelling intensity during the late 20th century journal January 2010
Wind stress and wind stress curl over the California current. book January 1976

Cited By (4)

Evaluating the effects of climate change in the southern Benguela upwelling system using the Atlantis modelling framework journal April 2018
Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem journal July 2019
On the role of climate modes in modulating the air–sea CO2 fluxes in eastern boundary upwelling systems journal January 2019
On the role of climate modes in modulating the air-sea CO2 fluxes in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems posted_content September 2018

Similar Records

The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate
Journal Article · Wed Apr 19 20:00:00 EDT 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:2422201
Circulation in the Peruvian Upwelling system near 15/sup 0/S
Journal Article · Sun Jul 20 00:00:00 EDT 1980 · J. Geophys. Res.; (United States) · OSTI ID:5161301

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
California Current
Earth System Model
coastal upwelling
internal variability
model ensemble