Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

Laufkotter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Hauck, Judith; John, Jasmin G.; Lima, Ivan D.; Seferian, Roland; Volker, Christoph

doi:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016

Title: Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

Journal Article · Thu Jul 14 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Biogeosciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016· OSTI ID:1375424

Laufkotter, Charlotte ^[1]; Vogt, Meike ^[2]; Gruber, Nicolas ^[2]; Aumont, Olivier ^[3]; Bopp, Laurent ^[4]; Doney, Scott C. ^[5]; Dunne, John P. ^[6]; Hauck, Judith ^[7]; John, Jasmin G. ^[6]; Lima, Ivan D. ^[5]; Seferian, Roland ^[8]; Volker, Christoph ^[7]

ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)
ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
Lab. de Physique des Oceans, Plouzane (France)
Lab des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
CNRM, Toulouse (France)

Here, accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

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Research Organization:: ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland). Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1375424

Journal Information:: Biogeosciences (Online), Vol. 13, Issue 13; ISSN 1726-4189

Publisher:: European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 99 works

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Globally Consistent Quantitative Observations of Planktonic Ecosystems Lombard, Fabien; Boss, Emmanuel; Waite, Anya M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000343600	text	January 2019
Glacial Iron Sources Stimulate the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle Laufkötter, Charlotte; Stern, Alon A.; John, Jasmin G. American Geophysical Union https://doi.org/10.48350/153153	text	January 2018
Southern Ocean Phytoplankton Blooms Observed by Biogeochemical Floats Uchida, Takaya; Balwada, Dhruv; Abernathey, Ryan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc015355	journal	November 2019
Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle Schlunegger, Sarah; Rodgers, Keith B.; Sarmiento, Jorge L. Nature Publishing Group https://doi.org/10.48350/158650	text	January 2019
Factors controlling coccolithophore biogeography in the Southern Ocean Nissen, Cara; Vogt, Meike; Münnich, Matthias ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000304764	text	January 2018
Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate Falk, Stefanie; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Krysztofiak, Gisele Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000075778#verlagsausgabe	text	January 2017
Coccolithophore Growth and Calcification in an Acidified Ocean: Insights From Community Earth System Model Simulations Krumhardt, Kristen M.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Long, Matthew C. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000356710	text	January 2019

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