Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Raible, Christoph C.; Smerdon, Jason E.

doi:10.1002/2017GL074117

Title: Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

Journal Article · Fri Jul 07 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117· OSTI ID:1473891

^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[2];

^[3];

^[4]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). Research Applications Lab.
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Lab.
Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Dept. of Climate and Environmental Physics
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division; National Science Foundation (NSF); US Dept. of the Interior (DOI), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR); Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

Contributing Organization:: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02‐97ER62402; AGS‐1243204; AGS‐1401400; AGS 1243125

OSTI ID:: 1473891

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1375068

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 14; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 187 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (90)

The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest: QUANTIFYING FUTURE MEGADROUGHT RISK Coats, Sloan; Mankin, Justin S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070445	journal	September 2016
The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025	journal	July 2016
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains Cook, Benjamin I.; Ault, Toby R.; Smerdon, Jason E. Science Advances, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082	journal	February 2015
Global warming and changes in drought Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067	journal	December 2013
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9	journal	January 2014
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future: COLORADO RIVER FLOW LOSS Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan Water Resources Research, Vol. 53, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019638	journal	March 2017
Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought Burke, Eleanor J.; Brown, Simon J. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM929.1	journal	April 2008
Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 43 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421010112	journal	October 2015
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013	journal	January 2013
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes Fischer, E. M.; Beyerle, U.; Knutti, R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051	journal	November 2013
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422385112	journal	March 2015
Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064924	journal	August 2015
Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8fq9w1x	text	January 2015
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?: SCENARIO DEPENDENCE OF EXTREME RAIN Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065854	journal	October 2015
Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models Scheff, Jacob; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00480.1	journal	July 2015
Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Fu, Q. Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1615-3	journal	February 2016
Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America: Internal Variability Drives Megadroughts Coats, S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, B. I. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070105	journal	September 2016
Plant responses to increasing CO ₂ reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 36 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113	journal	August 2016
Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008 Dai, Aiguo Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015541	journal	January 2011
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains Cook, Benjamin I.; Ault, Toby R.; Smerdon, Jason E. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8qz29fh	text	January 2015
Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts Stevenson, Samantha; Timmermann, Axel; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00689.1	journal	March 2015
Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries Held, I. M.; Delworth, T. L.; Lu, J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0509057102	journal	December 2005
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016	journal	January 2016
Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00417.1	journal	April 2015
Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium Routson, Cody C.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 146 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.017	journal	August 2016
Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate Simpson, Isla R.; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2783	journal	September 2015
Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Held, I. Science, Vol. 316, Issue 5828 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601	journal	May 2007
Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium Cook, E. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185188	journal	April 2010
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110	journal	December 2013
Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin: GROUNDWATER LOSS IN COLORADO RIVER BASIN Castle, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Brian F.; Reager, John T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061055	journal	August 2014
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations: North American megadroughts in the Common Era Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394	journal	March 2016
Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V. Science, Vol. 334, Issue 6055 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204994	journal	September 2011
Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era Cook, Edward R.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d82r3rh6	text	January 2015
Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era Cook, Edward R.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan Science Advances, Vol. 1, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561	journal	November 2015
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-13773-2012	journal	January 2012
Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0196.1	journal	April 2016
Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations Boisier, Juan P.; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2658	journal	June 2015
Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America Coats, Sloan John; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d890247c	text	January 2016
Global warming and 21st century drying Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y	journal	March 2014
On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon; Perlwitz, Judith Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1	journal	March 2012
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1	journal	November 2006
Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956	journal	October 2013
Global characteristics of pluvial and dry multi-year episodes, with emphasis on megadroughts Hunt, B. G. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2166	journal	June 2010
Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate Simpson, Isla R.; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8sx6rmx	text	January 2016
Drought under global warming: a review: Drought under global warming Dai, Aiguo Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81	journal	October 2010
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States Cook, E. R. Science, Vol. 306, Issue 5698 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1102586	journal	November 2004
Drought indices revisited – improving and testing of drought indices in a simulation of the last two millennia for Europe Raible, Christoph C.; Bärenbold, Oliver; Gómez-navarro, Juan José Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 69, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1296226	journal	January 2017
Responses of terrestrial aridity to global warming Fu, Qiang; Feng, Song Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021608	journal	July 2014
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112	journal	March 2015
Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I. Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600873	journal	October 2016
A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009: VARIATIONS IN THE SELF-CALIBRATING PDSI van der Schrier, G.; Barichivich, J.; Briffa, K. R. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50355	journal	May 2013
North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences Cook, Edward R.; Seager, Richard; Cane, Mark A. Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 81, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.12.002	journal	March 2007
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming: Future Soil Moisture Changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, P. C. D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921	journal	January 2017
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Roderick, Michael L. Nature, Vol. 491, Issue 7424 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575	journal	November 2012
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, C. -F.; Lissner, T. K.; Fischer, E. M. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2447-2015	journal	January 2015
The Closing Door of Climate Targets Stocker, T. F. Science, Vol. 339, Issue 6117 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1232468	journal	November 2012
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective: RIO GRANDE DECLINES IN RUNOFF EFFICIENCY Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073253	journal	May 2017
Modeling of Tropical Forcing of Persistent Droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856–2000 Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan; Herweijer, Celine Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3522.1	journal	October 2005
The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly Coats, Sloan John; Smerdon, Jason E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8w959nb	text	January 2016
Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains? Feng, Song; Trnka, Miroslav; Hayes, Michael Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0590.1	journal	January 2017
The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748‐9326/11/7/074025	journal	July 2016
Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM‐D‐15‐0196.1	journal	March 2016
Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains? Feng, Song; Trnka, Miroslav; Hayes, Michael Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐15‐0590.1	journal	January 2017
On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon; Perlwitz, Judith Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐11‐00296.1	journal	March 2012
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐12‐00121.1	journal	September 2013
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐13‐00255.1	journal	August 2015
Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Fu, Q. Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584‐016‐1615‐3	journal	February 2016
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess‐17‐1765‐2013	journal	January 2013
Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models Scheff, Jacob; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00480.1	journal	July 2015
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd‐7‐327‐2016	journal	January 2016
Causes of Increasing Aridification of the Mediterranean Region in Response to Rising Greenhouse Gases* Seager, Richard; Liu, Haibo; Henderson, Naomi Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐13‐00446.1	journal	June 2014
Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study* Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00417.1	journal	April 2015
Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts Stevenson, Samantha; Timmermann, Axel; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐13‐00689.1	journal	February 2015
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐11‐00094.1	journal	April 2012
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584‐013‐1032‐9	journal	January 2014
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B. Nature, Vol. 593, Issue 7857 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0	journal	May 2021
Drought indices revisited – improving and testing of drought indices in a simulation of the last two millennia for Europe Bärenbold, Oliver; Gomez, Juan Jose; Raible, Christoph Taylor & Francis https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.100807	text	January 2017
Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d85m6610	text	January 2016
Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 Park, Williams, A.; Richard, Seager,; T., Abatzoglou, John Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8fb52c5	text	January 2015
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era PAGES Hydro2k, Consortium; Raible, Christoph Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.109381	text	January 2017
Global Warming and 21st Century Drying Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8zc80xn	text	January 2014
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- andlong-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, Boris; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000073994	text	January 2013
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8tb17bp	text	January 2016
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116569	text	January 2016
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations I., Cook, Benjamin; R., Cook, Edward; E., Smerdon, Jason Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8js9qdd	text	January 2016
Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-nee2-va13	text	January 2007
Modeling of Tropical Forcing of Persistent Droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856–2000 Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan; Herweijer, Celine Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-t83r-5p09	text	January 2005

Cited By (40)

Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland Felton, Andrew J.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Smith, Melinda D. Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14789	journal	August 2019
The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models Lehner, Flavio; Wood, Andrew W.; Vano, Julie A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x	journal	November 2019
Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future Cook, Benjamin I.; Mankin, Justin S.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2	journal	May 2018
Past and future drought in Mongolia Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey Science Advances, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701832	journal	March 2018
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pulwarty, Roger Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0	journal	March 2020
Encounter Probability and Risk of Flood and Drought under Future Climate Change in the Two Tributaries of the Rao River Basin, China Liu, Mengyang; Yin, Yixing; Ma, Xieyao Water, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010104	journal	December 2019
Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios Liu, Wenbin; Lim, Wee Ho; Sun, Fubao Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078789	journal	September 2018
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C Saeed, Fahad; Bethke, Ingo; Fischer, Erich Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797	journal	June 2018
Potential impacts of specific global warming levels on extreme rainfall events over southern Africa in CORDEX and NEX‐GDDP ensembles Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Mogebisa, Tlakale O.; Petja, Brilliant International Journal of Climatology https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6386	journal	December 2019
Drylands climate response to transient and stabilized 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming targets Wei, Yun; Yu, Haipeng; Huang, Jianping Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04860-8	journal	June 2019
Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in China due to 0.5 °C of additional warming Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab072e	journal	June 2019
A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the National Economic Impacts of Regulatory Drought Management on Irrigated Agriculture Salmoral, G.; Rey, D.; Rudd, A. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef001092	journal	February 2019
Distinctive Evolutions of Eurasian Warming and Extreme Events Before and After Global Warming Would Stabilize at 1.5 °C Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Luo, Jing‐Jia Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef001093	journal	February 2019
Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds King, Andrew D.; Lane, Todd P.; Henley, Benjamin J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7	journal	December 2019
Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half‐Degree Warming Increment Analogues for Future Projections? Zhao, Siyao; Zhou, Tianjun Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001237	journal	August 2019
Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates Gu, Lei; Chen, Jie; Yin, Jiabo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 24, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020	journal	January 2020
On the need for regional climate information over Africa under varying levels of global warming Lennard, C. J.; Nikulin, G.; Dosio, A. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab2b4	journal	June 2018
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level Montroull, Natalia B.; Saurral, Ramiro I.; Camilloni, Inés A. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5505	journal	March 2018
Projected changes in drought characteristics over the Western Cape, South Africa Naik, Myra; Abiodun, Babatunde J. Meteorological Applications, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1802	journal	July 2019
Power Law Growth and Delayed Feedbacks in Socio‐Hydrological Systems Parolari, Anthony J.; Manoli, Gabriele Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001185	journal	November 2019
The relation of climate extremes with global warming in the Mediterranean region and its north versus south contrast Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01610-z	journal	February 2020
Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao; Zhou, Baiquan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079216	journal	July 2018
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia Henley, Benjamin J.; Peel, Murray C.; Nathan, Rory Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef	journal	August 2019
Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0	journal	April 2018
Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5521	journal	March 2018
South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Wijngaard, René R. Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4	journal	November 2018
Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5	journal	April 2018
Differential Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C Warming on Extreme Events Over China Using Statistically Downscaled and Bias-Corrected CESM Low-Warming Experiment Yang, Yi; Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079272	journal	September 2018
Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Filella, Iolanda Forests, Vol. 8, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120463	journal	November 2017
Drivers, timing and some impacts of global aridity change Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae013	journal	October 2018
Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios Nangombe, Shingirai; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Wenxia Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6	journal	April 2018
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018	journal	January 2018
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4	journal	January 2019
The changing water cycle: The eco‐hydrologic impacts of forest density reduction in Mediterranean (seasonally dry) regions Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max; Hanan, Erin Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1350	journal	May 2019
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes Chen, Yang; Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001202	journal	August 2019
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Kim, Hyungjun; Utsumi, Nobuyuki Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2	journal	March 2019
Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows Paltan, Homero; Allen, Myles; Haustein, Karsten Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad985	journal	August 2018
European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Seim, Andrea; Krusic, Paul J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e	journal	July 2019
Power Law Growth and Delayed Feedbacks in Socio‐Hydrological Systems Parolari, Anthony J.; Manoli, Gabriele ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000387052	text	January 2019
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Hyungjun, Kim; Utsumi, Nobuyuki ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000331506	text	January 2019

Figures / Tables (3)

Figure 1(p. 4)

Figure 2(p. 5)

Figure 3(p. 7)

Similar Records

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of Global Warming

Journal Article · Mon Aug 06 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1473891

King, Andrew D.; Knutti, Reto; Uhe, Peter; +4 more

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Journal Article · Mon Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1473891

Son, Rackhun; Kim, Hyungjun; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); +8 more

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Journal Article · Wed Mar 03 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1473891

Son, Rackhun; Kim, Hyungjun; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); +8 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
drought
drought risk
climate modeling
projections
climate targets
mitigation