Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Son, Rackhun; Kim, Hyungjun; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Woo, Sung-Ho; Jeong, Ji-Yoon; Lee, Byung-Doo; Kim, Seung Hee; LaPlante, Matthew; Kwon, Chun-Geun; Yoon, Jin-Ho

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe675

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Journal Article · 01 March 2021 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675· OSTI ID:1852345

^[1]; ; ; ; Woo, Sung-Ho; ; Lee, Byung-Doo; Kim, Seung Hee; LaPlante, Matthew; Kwon, Chun-Geun;

OSTI

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

DOE Contract Number:: SC0016605;

OSTI ID:: 1852345

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 16; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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