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Title: Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

Journal Article · · Advances in Meteorology
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4650284· OSTI ID:1374046
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [2];  [4]
  1. Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China); Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan (China)
  2. Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China)
  3. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
  4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing (China)
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Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.

Research Organization:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); National Key Basic Research Program of China; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
OSTI ID:
1374046
Journal Information:
Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2017; ISSN 1687-9309
Publisher:
HindawiCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 12 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (3)

Simulation of the occurrence of drought events via copulas journal January 2020
Quantifying the Relationship between Drought and Water Scarcity Using Copulas: Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Metropolitan Areas in China journal November 2018
Bias Correction of Climate Model’s Precipitation Using the Copula Method and Its Application in River Basin Simulation journal March 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Beijing
SPEI
conditional probability
copulas
meteorological drought
precipitation