Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

Solander, Kurt C.; Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Middleton, Richard Stephen

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.05.004

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

Journal Article · Mon Jul 10 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.05.004· OSTI ID:1371671

^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

The global phenomenon of climate change-induced shifts in precipitation leading to "wet regions getting wetter" and "dry regions getting drier" has been widely studied. However, the propagation of these changes in atmospheric moisture within stream channels is not a direct relationship due to differences in the timing of how changing precipitation patterns interact with various land surfaces. Streamflow is of particular interest in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the region’s rapidly growing population, projected temperature increases that are expected to be higher than elsewhere in the contiguous United States, and subsequent climate-driven disturbances including drought, vegetation mortality, and wildfire, which makes the region more vulnerable to changes in hydrologic extremes. Here in this study, we determine how streamflow extremes have shifted in the CRB using two statistical methods—the Mann-Kendall trend detection analysis and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theorem. We evaluate these changes in the context of key flow metrics that include high and low flow percentiles, maximum and minimum 7-day flows, and the center timing of streamflow using historical gage records representative of natural flows. Monthly results indicate declines of up to 41% for high and low flows during the June to July peak runoff season, while increases of up to 24% were observed earlier from March to April. Finally, our results highlight a key threshold elevation and latitude of 2300 m and 39° North, respectively, where there is a distinct shift in the trend. The spatiotemporal patterns observed are indicative of changing snowmelt patterns as a primary cause of the shifts. Identification of how this change varies spatially has consequences for improved land management strategies, as specific regions most vulnerable to threats can be prioritized for mitigation or adaptation as the climate warms.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1371671

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-16-29616

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies Vol. 12; ISSN 2214-5818

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (61)

Spatial and temporal patterns in conterminous United States streamflow characteristics: Streamflow Characterisitics McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061980	journal	October 2014
Transition of dominant peak flow source from snowmelt to rainfall along the C olorado F ront R ange: Historical patterns, trends, and lessons from the 2013 C olorado F ront R ange floods Kampf, Stephanie K.; Lefsky, Michael A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017784	journal	January 2016
A flexible nonlinear modelling framework for nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis in hydroclimatology Cannon, Alex J. Hydrological Processes, Vol. 24, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7506	journal	November 2009
Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Canadian watersheds Burn, Donald H.; Sharif, Mohammed; Zhang, Kan Hydrological Processes, Vol. 24, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7625	journal	March 2010
AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background, observations, and comparisons Burnham, Kenneth P.; Anderson, David R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, Vol. 65, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00265-010-1029-6	journal	August 2010
Statistics of extremes in climate change Katz, Richard W. Climatic Change, Vol. 100, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9834-5	journal	May 2010
Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State Mantua, Nathan; Tohver, Ingrid; Hamlet, Alan Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2	journal	April 2010
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z	journal	August 2011
Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate Cheng, Linyin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Gilleland, Eric Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5	journal	September 2014
GEVcdn: An R package for nonstationary extreme value analysis by generalized extreme value conditional density estimation network Cannon, Alex J. Computers & Geosciences, Vol. 37, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2011.03.005	journal	September 2011
Neural networks for probabilistic environmental prediction: Conditional Density Estimation Network Creation and Evaluation (CaDENCE) in R Cannon, Alex J. Computers & Geosciences, Vol. 41 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2011.08.023	journal	April 2012
A bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty of water quality trends Hirsch, Robert M.; Archfield, Stacey A.; De Cicco, Laura A. Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 73 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.017	journal	November 2015
An assessment of the stationarity of climate and stream flow in watersheds of the Colorado River Basin Murphy, Kevin W.; Ellis, Andrew W. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 509 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.056	journal	February 2014
Evaluating the effect of persistence on long-term trends and analyzing step changes in streamflows of the continental United States Sagarika, Soumya; Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 517 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.002	journal	September 2014
Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins Bennett, K. E.; Cannon, A. J.; Hinzman, L. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 527 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.065	journal	August 2015
21st century increases in the likelihood of extreme hydrologic conditions for the mountainous basins of the Southwestern United States Stewart, Iris T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Carrillo, Carlos A. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 529 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.043	journal	October 2015
Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 547 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.051	journal	April 2017
Streamflow trends in the United States Lins, Harry F.; Slack, James R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900291	journal	January 1999
Trends in Canadian streamflow Zhang, Xuebin; Harvey, K. David; Hogg, W. D. Water Resources Research, Vol. 37, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357	journal	April 2001
A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States: A STEP INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015999	journal	December 2002
The western U.S. drought: How bad is it? Piechota, Thomas; Timilsena, Janak; Tootle, Glenn Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 85, Issue 32 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004EO320001	journal	January 2004
Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States: U.S. DROUGHT TRENDS Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025711	journal	May 2006
On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century: STATIONARITY OF ANNUAL FLOOD PEAKS Villarini, Gabriele; Serinaldi, Francesco; Smith, James A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007645	journal	August 2009
Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate?: RAPID COMMUNICATION Rajagopalan, Balaji; Nowak, Kenneth; Prairie, James Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007652	journal	August 2009
Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century Karl, Thomas R.; Knight, Richard W.; Plummer, Neil Nature, Vol. 377, Issue 6546 https://doi.org/10.1038/377217a0	journal	September 1995
Ground water and climate change Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1744	journal	November 2012
The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes Prein, Andreas F.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Ikeda, Kyoko Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3168	journal	December 2016
A Method for Assessing Hydrologic Alteration within Ecosystems Richter, Brian D.; Baumgartner, Jeffrey V.; Powell, Jennifer Conservation Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041163.x	journal	August 1996
Evapotranspiration Intensifies over the Conterminous United States Szilagyi, Jozsef; Katul, Gabriel G.; Parlange, Marc B. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 127, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2001)127:6(354)	journal	December 2001
Trend and Variability in Observed Hydrological Extremes in the United States Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Palmer, Richard N. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001286	journal	February 2016
Global temperature change Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Ruedy, R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 39 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0606291103	journal	September 2006
Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate Barnett, T. P.; Pierce, D. W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812762106	journal	April 2009
Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest MacDonald, G. M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0909651107	journal	December 2010
A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America Woodhouse, C. A.; Meko, D. M.; MacDonald, G. M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0911197107	journal	December 2010
Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought Cayan, D. R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D. W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912391107	journal	December 2010
Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow Painter, T. H.; Deems, J. S.; Belnap, J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 40 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913139107	journal	September 2010
Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau Sen, Pranab Kumar Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 63, Issue 324 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934	journal	December 1968
Spatiotemporal index for analyzing controls on snow climatology: application in the Colorado Front Range Richer, Eric E.; Kampf, Stephanie K.; Fassnacht, Steven R. Physical Geography, Vol. 34, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2013.787578	journal	April 2013
Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? Milly, P. C. D.; Betancourt, J.; Falkenmark, M. Science, Vol. 319, Issue 5863 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915	journal	February 2008
Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States Karl, Thomas R.; Knight, Richard W. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 79, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0231:STOPAF>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 1998
Observed Variability and Trends in Extreme Climate Events: A Brief Review ^* Easterling, D. R.; Evans, J. L.; Groisman, P. Ya Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2	journal	March 2000
Heavy Precipitation and High Streamflow in the Contiguous United States: Trends in the Twentieth Century Groisman, Pavel Ya; Knight, Richard W.; Karl, Thomas R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 82, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0219:HPAHSI>2.3.CO;2	journal	February 2001
Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004 Dai, Aiguo; Qian, Taotao; Trenberth, Kevin E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1	journal	May 2009
Regional Analysis of Trend and Step Changes Observed in Hydroclimatic Variables around the Colorado River Basin Miller, W. Paul; Piechota, Thomas C. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM988.1	journal	October 2008
Changes in the Timing of Snowmelt and Streamflow in Colorado: A Response to Recent Warming Clow, David W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1	journal	May 2010
Anthropogenic Influence on Long Return Period Daily Temperature Extremes at Regional Scales Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin; Feng, Yang Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1	journal	February 2011
Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States Regonda, Satish Kumar; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Clark, Martyn Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3272.1	journal	January 2005
Changes toward Earlier Streamflow Timing across Western North America Stewart, Iris T.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3321.1	journal	April 2005
Trends in Snowfall versus Rainfall in the Western United States Knowles, Noah; Dettinger, Michael D.; Cayan, Daniel R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3850.1	journal	September 2006
Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America Mote, Philip W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3971.1	journal	December 2006
Skill and Global Trend Analysis of Soil Moisture from Reanalyses and Microwave Remote Sensing Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.; Reichle, R. H. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0161.1	journal	August 2013
Trends and Variability in Snowmelt Runoff in the Western United States McCabe, Gregory J.; Clark, Martyn P. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM428.1	journal	August 2005
Downscaling extremes: A comparison of extreme value distributions in point-source and gridded precipitation data Mannshardt-Shamseldin, Elizabeth C.; Smith, Richard L.; Sain, Stephan R. The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS287	journal	March 2010
Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Maurer, Edwin P. PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071297	journal	August 2013
To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Bayazit, M.; Önöz, B. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 52, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.4.611	journal	August 2007
GAGES: A stream gage database for evaluating natural and altered flow conditions in the conterminous United States Falcone, James A.; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M. Ecology, Vol. 91, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0889.1	journal	February 2010
Ecologically Sustainable Water Management: Managing River Flows for Ecological Integrity Richter, Brian D.; Mathews, Ruth; Harrison, David L. Ecological Applications, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0206:ESWMMR]2.0.CO;2	journal	February 2003
Nonparametric Tests Against Trend Mann, Henry B. Econometrica, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187	journal	July 1945
A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin Christensen, N. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1417-2007	journal	January 2007
The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records Hannaford, J.; Buys, G.; Stahl, K. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013	journal	January 2013
Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations Asadieh, B.; Krakauer, N. Y. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015	journal	January 2015

Cited By (4)

Increasing drought favors nonnative fishes in a dryland river: evidence from a multispecies demographic model Rogosch, Jane S.; Tonkin, Jonathan D.; Lytle, David A. Ecosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2681	journal	April 2019
Flood Size Increases Nonlinearly Across the Western United States in Response to Lower Snow‐Precipitation Ratios Davenport, Frances V.; Herrera‐Estrada, Julio E.; Burke, Marshall Water Resources Research, Vol. 56, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr025571	journal	January 2020
Threats to a Colorado river provisioning basin under coupled future climate and societal scenarios Bennett, Katrina E.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Llewellyn, Dagmar Environmental Research Communications, Vol. 1, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab4028	journal	September 2019
Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-709-2018	journal	January 2018

Similar Records

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

Journal Article · Mon May 11 20:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Hydrology · OSTI ID:1236702

Interactions between Climate Change and Complex Topography Drive Observed Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

Journal Article · Thu Oct 18 20:00:00 EDT 2018 · Journal of Hydrometeorology · OSTI ID:1580197

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earth Sciences
Streamflow
extremes
snow
Colorado River Basin

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

Citation Formats

References (61)

Cited By (4)

Similar Records

Related Subjects