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Title: Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 enrichment experiment

Journal Article · · Global Change Biology
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13643· OSTI ID:1349613
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [4];  [5];  [9];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [2];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16] more »;  [2];  [17];  [18];  [3] « less
  1. Macquarie Univ., North Ryde, NSW (Australia)
  2. Western Sydney Univ., Penrith, NSW (Australia)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  4. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  5. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  6. Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  7. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  8. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt (Germany); Goethe-Univ., Frankfurt (Germany)
  9. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  10. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
  11. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, VIC (Australia)
  12. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)
  13. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt (Germany)
  14. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China)
  15. United States Dept. of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  16. Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom)
  17. The Univ. of Sydney, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  18. Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Abstract Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models ( TBM s), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single‐factor experiments. We applied 10 TBM s to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment ( PHACE ) experiment in Wyoming, USA . Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above‐ground net primary productivity (range: 31–390 g C m −2  yr −1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single‐factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 ‐induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive ( CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single‐factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; SC0016323; NNX14AD94G; 647204; AGS 12-43071; DE‐SC0016323
OSTI ID:
1349613
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1373820
Journal Information:
Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 9; ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 32 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (11)

Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change journal January 2019
Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review journal June 2018
Plant Feedback Aggravates Soil Organic Carbon Loss Associated With Wind Erosion in Northwest China journal April 2019
The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis journal October 2018
Joint structural and physiological control on the interannual variation in productivity in a temperate grassland: A data-model comparison journal May 2018
Desiccation time during drought is highly predictable across species of Eucalyptus from contrasting climates journal June 2019
Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought journal January 2020
Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization journal January 2018
Effect of changing vegetation and precipitation on denudation – Part 1: Predicted vegetation composition and cover over the last 21 thousand years along the Coastal Cordillera of Chile journal January 2018
Global Patterns in Net Primary Production Allocation Regulated by Environmental Conditions and Forest Stand Age: A Model‐Data Comparison text January 2019
Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review text January 2018

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
carbon dioxide
FACE
grassland
PHACE
temperature
models