Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

Kontou, Eleftheria; Yin, Yafeng; Lin, Zhenhong; He, Fang

doi:10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341

Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

Journal Article · Wed Apr 05 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341· OSTI ID:1371525

^[1]; Yin, Yafeng ^[2]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[3]; He, Fang ^[4]

Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Knoxville, TN (United States)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (People's Republic of China)

In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, the government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage datasets that represent U.S. household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All of the public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decision variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. In conclusion, faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1371525

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1658021

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5400-68298

Journal Information:: International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, Journal Name: International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 11; ISSN 1556-8318

Publisher:: Taylor & FrancisCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Sustainability assessment of fuel cell buses in public transport Lozanovski, Aleksandar; Whitehouse, Nicole; Ko, Nathanael Universität Stuttgart https://doi.org/10.18419/opus-9892	collection	January 2018
Bi-Level Planning Model of Charging Stations Considering the Coupling Relationship between Charging Stations and Travel Route Zang, Haixiang; Fu, Yuting; Chen, Ming Applied Sciences, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/app8071130	journal	July 2018
Manufacturing Decisions and Government Subsidies for Electric Vehicles in China: A Maximal Social Welfare Perspective Zheng, Xiaoxue; Lin, Haiyan; Liu, Zhi Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030672	journal	March 2018
Sustainability Assessment of Fuel Cell Buses in Public Transport Lozanovski, Aleksandar; Whitehouse, Nicole; Ko, Nathanael Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051480	journal	May 2018

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Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

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