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Title: Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers

Abstract

Properly determining the driving range is critical for accurately predicting the sales and social benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This study proposes a framework for optimizing the driving range by minimizing the sum of battery price, electricity cost, and range limitation cost referred to as the "range-related cost" as a measurement of range anxiety. The objective function is linked to policy-relevant parameters, including battery cost and price markup, battery utilization, charging infrastructure availability, vehicle efficiency, electricity and gasoline prices, household vehicle ownership, daily driving patterns, discount rate, and perceived vehicle lifetime. Qualitative discussion of the framework and its empirical application to a sample (N=36664) representing new car drivers in the United States is included. The quantitative results strongly suggest that ranges of less than 100 miles are likely to be more popular in the BEV market for a long period of time. The average optimal range among U.S. drivers is found to be largely inelastic. Still, battery cost reduction significantly drives BEV demand toward longer ranges, whereas improvement in the charging infrastructure is found to significantly drive BEV demand toward shorter ranges. In conclusion, the bias of a single-range assumption and the effects of range optimization and diversification inmore » reducing such biases are both found to be significant.« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1150369
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Transportation Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0041-1655
Publisher:
INFORMS
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; electric vehicle; range anxiety; optimal design; transportation energy; alternative fuel infrastructure

Citation Formats

Lin, Zhenhong. Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1287/trsc.2013.0516.
Lin, Zhenhong. Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers. United States. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2013.0516
Lin, Zhenhong. 2014. "Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers". United States. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2013.0516. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1150369.
@article{osti_1150369,
title = {Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers},
author = {Lin, Zhenhong},
abstractNote = {Properly determining the driving range is critical for accurately predicting the sales and social benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This study proposes a framework for optimizing the driving range by minimizing the sum of battery price, electricity cost, and range limitation cost referred to as the "range-related cost" as a measurement of range anxiety. The objective function is linked to policy-relevant parameters, including battery cost and price markup, battery utilization, charging infrastructure availability, vehicle efficiency, electricity and gasoline prices, household vehicle ownership, daily driving patterns, discount rate, and perceived vehicle lifetime. Qualitative discussion of the framework and its empirical application to a sample (N=36664) representing new car drivers in the United States is included. The quantitative results strongly suggest that ranges of less than 100 miles are likely to be more popular in the BEV market for a long period of time. The average optimal range among U.S. drivers is found to be largely inelastic. Still, battery cost reduction significantly drives BEV demand toward longer ranges, whereas improvement in the charging infrastructure is found to significantly drive BEV demand toward shorter ranges. In conclusion, the bias of a single-range assumption and the effects of range optimization and diversification in reducing such biases are both found to be significant.},
doi = {10.1287/trsc.2013.0516},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1150369}, journal = {Transportation Science},
issn = {0041-1655},
number = 4,
volume = 48,
place = {United States},
year = {2014},
month = {8}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 15 works
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Works referenced in this record:

On the effect of the prior of Bayes estimators of the willingness to pay for electric-vehicle driving range
journal, June 2013


Within-day recharge of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: Energy impact of public charging infrastructure
journal, July 2012


What drives range preferences in electric vehicle users?
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conference, January 1996


Optimizing and Diversifying the Electric Range of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles for U.S. Drivers
journal, April 2012


Promoting the Market for Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles: Role of Recharge Availability
journal, January 2011

  • Lin, Zhenhong; Greene, David L.
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2252, Issue 1
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2252-07

Assessing Energy Impact of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Significance of Daily Distance Variation over Time and Among Drivers
journal, January 2011

  • Lin, Zhenhong; Greene, David L.
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2252, Issue 1
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2252-13

Estimation of Energy Use by Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Validating Gamma Distribution for Representing Random Daily Driving Distance
journal, January 2012

  • Lin, Zhenhong; Dong, Jing; Liu, Changzheng
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2287, Issue 1
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Electric vehicles: How much range is required for a day’s driving?
journal, December 2011


Characterization of urban commuter driving profiles to optimize battery size in light-duty plug-in electric vehicles
journal, May 2011


A statistical approach to estimating acceptance of electric vehicles and electrification of personal transportation
journal, January 2013


Works referencing / citing this record:

Traffic equilibrium with a continuously distributed bound on travel weights: the rise of range anxiety and mental account
journal, August 2018


The impact of reliable range estimation on battery electric vehicle feasibility
journal, November 2019


Planning for electric vehicle needs by coupling charging profiles with urban mobility
journal, April 2018


Empirical Fuel Consumption and CO 2 Emissions of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Fuel Consumption of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
journal, July 2017


Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarios
journal, September 2018


Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles
journal, July 2018


Empirical Fuel Consumption and CO₂ Emissions of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
text, January 2017