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U.S. Department of Energy
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Uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System. 2: Analysis of results

Journal Article · · Journal of Energy Engineering
;  [1]; ;  [2];  [3]
  1. Washington Consulting Group, Washington, DC (United States)
  2. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
  3. George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

This is the second of two papers on characterizing the uncertainty present in key elements of the US Department of Energy`s new National Energy`s Modeling System. The theory behind the assessment procedures developed was described in the first paper, and the current work presents the important numerical results and analyses of their experiments, all done as a collaborative effort between the Energy Information Administration, the Washington Consulting Group, and the School of Information Technology and Engineering of George Mason University. The method testing involved the three most important National Energy Modeling System submodel types, namely, linear optimization, econometric, and heuristic or balance equations. The results of using the uncertainty procedures on the Energy Information Administration`s transportation sector demand and petroleum market models are provided here.

Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
OSTI ID:
137026
Journal Information:
Journal of Energy Engineering, Journal Name: Journal of Energy Engineering Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 121; ISSN JLEED9; ISSN 0733-9402
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English