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Title: Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation

Abstract

A challenging problem in designing pilot-scale carbon capture systems is to predict, with uncertainty, the adsorber performance and capture efficiency under various operating conditions where no direct experimental data exist. Motivated by this challenge, we previously proposed a hierarchical framework in which relevant parameters of physical models were sequentially calibrated from different laboratory-scale carbon capture unit (C2U) experiments. Specifically, three models of increasing complexity were identified based on the fundamental physical and chemical processes of the sorbent-based carbon capture technology. Results from the corresponding laboratory experiments were used to statistically calibrate the physical model parameters while quantifying some of their inherent uncertainty. The parameter distributions obtained from laboratory-scale C2U calibration runs are used in this study to facilitate prediction at a larger scale where no corresponding experimental results are available. In this paper, we first describe the multiphase reactive flow model for a sorbent-based 1-MW carbon capture system then analyze results from an ensemble of simulations with the upscaled model. The simulation results are used to quantify uncertainty regarding the design’s predicted efficiency in carbon capture. In particular, we determine the minimum gas flow rate necessary to achieve 90% capture efficiency with 95% confidence.

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1357718
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-116536
Journal ID: ISSN 0032-5910; AA9010100
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Powder Technology; Journal Volume: 312
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Computational fluid dynamics; bubbling bed; carbon capture; model validation; multiphase reactive flow; uncertainty quantification

Citation Formats

Xu, Zhijie, Lai, Canhai, Marcy, Peter William, Dietiker, Jean-François, Li, Tingwen, Sarkar, Avik, and Sun, Xin. Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.powtec.2017.02.027.
Xu, Zhijie, Lai, Canhai, Marcy, Peter William, Dietiker, Jean-François, Li, Tingwen, Sarkar, Avik, & Sun, Xin. Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation. United States. doi:10.1016/j.powtec.2017.02.027.
Xu, Zhijie, Lai, Canhai, Marcy, Peter William, Dietiker, Jean-François, Li, Tingwen, Sarkar, Avik, and Sun, Xin. 2017. "Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation". United States. doi:10.1016/j.powtec.2017.02.027.
@article{osti_1357718,
title = {Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation},
author = {Xu, Zhijie and Lai, Canhai and Marcy, Peter William and Dietiker, Jean-François and Li, Tingwen and Sarkar, Avik and Sun, Xin},
abstractNote = {A challenging problem in designing pilot-scale carbon capture systems is to predict, with uncertainty, the adsorber performance and capture efficiency under various operating conditions where no direct experimental data exist. Motivated by this challenge, we previously proposed a hierarchical framework in which relevant parameters of physical models were sequentially calibrated from different laboratory-scale carbon capture unit (C2U) experiments. Specifically, three models of increasing complexity were identified based on the fundamental physical and chemical processes of the sorbent-based carbon capture technology. Results from the corresponding laboratory experiments were used to statistically calibrate the physical model parameters while quantifying some of their inherent uncertainty. The parameter distributions obtained from laboratory-scale C2U calibration runs are used in this study to facilitate prediction at a larger scale where no corresponding experimental results are available. In this paper, we first describe the multiphase reactive flow model for a sorbent-based 1-MW carbon capture system then analyze results from an ensemble of simulations with the upscaled model. The simulation results are used to quantify uncertainty regarding the design’s predicted efficiency in carbon capture. In particular, we determine the minimum gas flow rate necessary to achieve 90% capture efficiency with 95% confidence.},
doi = {10.1016/j.powtec.2017.02.027},
journal = {Powder Technology},
number = ,
volume = 312,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month = 5
}