Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Bouwman, Lex; Riahi, Keywan; Amann, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Havlik, Petr; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyes, Chris; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luderer, Gunnar; Masui, Toshihiko; Stehfest, Elke; Strefler, Jessica; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tavoni, Massimo

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Journal Article · Fri Jul 15 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global Environmental Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012· OSTI ID:1349165

Rao, Shilpa ^[1]; Klimont, Zbigniew ^[2]; Smith, Steven J. ^[3]; Van Dingenen, Rita ^[4]; Dentener, Frank ^[4]; ^[5]; Riahi, Keywan ^[6]; Amann, Markus ^[2]; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^[7]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[5]; Reis, Lara Aleluia ^[8]; Calvin, Katherine ^[9]; ^[8]; Fricko, Oliver ^[2]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[10]; Gernaat, David ^[11]; Havlik, Petr ^[2]; Harmsen, Mathijs ^[11]; Hasegawa, Tomoko ^[10]; Heyes, Chris ^[2] more »

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo (Norway)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology, Graz (Austria)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia (Austria)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy)

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21^st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1349165

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--116149; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Journal Name: Global Environmental Change Journal Issue: C Vol. 42; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Identifying Sustainability and Knowledge Gaps in Socio-Economic Pathways Vis-à-Vis the Sustainable Development Goals Zimm, Caroline; Sperling, Frank; Busch, Sebastian Economies, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/economies6020020	journal	March 2018
A Study of the Socioeconomic Forces Driving Air Pollution Based on a DPSIR Model in Henan Province, China Chuai, Xiaoming; Fan, Chao; Wang, Mingshi Sustainability, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010252	journal	December 2019
Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017	journal	January 2017
Comparison and evaluation of anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x over China Li, Meng; Klimont, Zbigniew; Zhang, Qiang Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3433-2018	journal	January 2018
Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM 2.5 pollution over India (2015–2050) Venkataraman, Chandra; Brauer, Michael; Tibrewal, Kushal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8017-2018	journal	January 2018
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Lund, Marianne T.; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019	journal	January 2019
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019	journal	January 2019
Meeting climate targets by direct CO₂ injections: what price would the ocean have to pay? Reith, Fabian; Koeve, Wolfgang; Keller, David P. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019	journal	January 2019
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO ₂ emissions Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017	journal	January 2017
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019	journal	January 2019
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019	journal	January 2019
Historical (1750 - 2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emission Data System (CEDS) Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang EGU https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-43	preprint	March 2017

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