Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Bouwman, Lex; Riahi, Keywan; Amann, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Havlik, Petr; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyes, Chris; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luderer, Gunnar; Masui, Toshihiko; Stehfest, Elke; Strefler, Jessica; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tavoni, Massimo

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012

Title: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Journal Article · Fri Jul 15 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global Environmental Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012· OSTI ID:1349165

Rao, Shilpa ^[1]; Klimont, Zbigniew ^[2]; Smith, Steven J. ^[3]; Van Dingenen, Rita ^[4]; Dentener, Frank ^[4];

^[5]; Riahi, Keywan ^[6]; Amann, Markus ^[2]; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^[7]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[5]; Reis, Lara Aleluia ^[8]; Calvin, Katherine ^[9];

^[8]; Fricko, Oliver ^[2]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[10]; Gernaat, David ^[11]; Havlik, Petr ^[2]; Harmsen, Mathijs ^[11]; Hasegawa, Tomoko ^[10]; Heyes, Chris ^[2] more »

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo (Norway)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology, Graz (Austria)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia (Austria)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany);
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy)

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21^st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1349165

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-116149; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42, Issue C; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 232 works

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Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework Yang, Shuhui; Cui, Xuefeng Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205712	journal	October 2019
Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders [London] : Nature Publishing Group UK https://doi.org/10.34657/9407	text	January 2019
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Amsterdam : Elsevier https://doi.org/10.34657/9926	text	January 2016
TM5-FASST: a global atmospheric source–receptor model for rapid impact analysis of emission changes on air quality and short-lived climate pollutants Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Crippa, Monica Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16173-2018	journal	January 2018
Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions Wilcox, Laura J.; Liu, Zhen; Samset, Bjørn H. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020	journal	January 2020
Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers Allen, Robert J.; Turnock, Steven; Nabat, Pierre Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020	journal	August 2020
How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range Stjern, Camilla W.; Samset, Bjørn H.; Boucher, Olivier Plant Molecule Biology https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-192	journal	October 2002
Tropospheric ozone changes and ozone sensitivity from the present day to the future under shared socio-economic pathways Liu, Zhenze; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022	journal	January 2022
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Lund, Marianne T.; Aamaas, Borgar; Stjern, Camilla W. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020	journal	November 2020

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